Paris, April 7 {No.98-67} - The third of the series 21st Century Talks brought together Boutros Boutros Ghali, General-Secretary of La Francophonie and former Secretary-General of the United Nations, and Jacques Attali, former head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

The debate addressed the question, “Ready for the 21st Century?” In his introduction, Jérôme Bindé, director of UNESCO’s Analysis and Forecasting Office highlighted three major challenges facing humanity: growing inequality, sustainable development and a lack of direction which he explained: “Not only do we lack direction, we are also missing the instruments to hold our course. Many states have lost control of events.”

Mr Boutros-Ghali insisted on the need to address a preliminary question before discussing development, or any other question: “Without peace, it is impossible to find a solution to the problems of the coming century.” He said that two phenomena are posing particular difficulties at the end of the Cold War. First, globalisation - but Mr Boutros-Ghali prefers to speak of globalisations: “Globalisation of environmental problems, globalisation of terrorism which has become international, globalisation of the marketplace. Each globalisation has its own specificity and speed” which gives birth to a fortress mentality, which further complicates the North-South conflict.

The Secretary-General of La Francophonie also said that the post Cold War era was characterised by the survival of only one superpower, while the problems generated by globalisation can only be tackled through the participation of all states. Such participation calls for a new approach which involves turning to non-governmental players. Mr Boutros-Ghali referred to two categories of players which sometimes dispose of budgets greater than those of some states: non-governmental organisations and multinationals. Later in the debate, he added major cities to this list.

“These new actors profit from peaceful conditions but do not shoulder the responsibilities necessary to maintain peace and only indirectly shoulder responsibility for development. If we wish to face the problems of the 21st century, we must find a way to include these non-governmental players in the management of international problems. We will thus ensure a modicum of democracy. Otherwise, globalisation may lead to the emergence of a totalitarian system - headed either by technocrats or by a single government, or else by an extremely small number of governments, resting on systems which pretend to be democratic but which dispose of ever diminishing power,” the former UN Secretary-General declared.

Mr Attali said that an opportunity to re-organise international institutions had been missed at the end of the Cold War. This opportunity was allowed to go by, because people thought that it was the West which had won, that Western values would prevail: “It was thought that it was sufficient to generalise these values for everything to be all right. We are deluded in believing that a [free] market and democracy will ensure an irreversible and stable order. Yet, not only are a [free] market and democracy not enough to found a civilisation, they are contradictory and self-destructive values, as both are based on individualism.”

They are self-destructive because “individualism entails reversibility. Reversibility of choices, for the consumer and for the citizen. Our societies are based on the apologia - by the market and by democracy - of precariousness. A civilisation cannot be founded on the apologia of precariousness.” These values are contradictory because the market relies on the absence of borders while democracy relies on borders to define the framework within which it is practised. Mr Attali thought that the market implied that an optimal state of social development was reached when each individual behaves egotistically while democracy is based on the fact that the optimal state of development is reached when the minority agrees to submit to the rules of the majority.

This contradiction between “a market based on the unanimous acceptance of egotistical behaviour and democracy which is based on the submission of the minority to the rules of the majority is concretely translated by the fact that today - and even more so tomorrow with the victory of market forces - rich minorities will no longer accept the diktats of the less wealthy majorities.” They will chose to escape through secession - “the rich regions will get rid of the poor regions through a type of inverted de-colonisation” or through individual solutions which will entail the departure of rich individuals. “Unless we are careful, the 21st century will be a century during which nations will multiply and links of solidarity will be severed by the double victory of the market and democracy, or rather by the victory of the market over democracy.”

According to Mr Attali, neither the market nor democracy should be abandoned. Both are necessary but it is important today to note their limits, he said. As to the new technologies, they lead to “connexity” - a term Mr Attali prefers to globalisation - but this connexity (interdependence in time and space) is not incompatible with solitude: “we will be increasingly interdependent but ever more solitary.” This will lead to the birth of three social types, within each country and at the global level. A super-class will group those who dispose of the gamut of instruments of connexity, “voluntary nomads of exacerbated individuality.” At the other end of the scale, we will find “the nomads of destitution who will endure the impact of the [new] technologies and who will be obliged to roam to find work and means of survival.” In between, there will be a gigantic middle class “living in the vain hope of joining the superclass and in fear of falling into global wandering.” The middle class will be the spectator of the show provided by the new means of communication. Entertainment will become a greater industry than ever because, “if reversibility and precariousness become the rule, attention will have to be distracted from this to maintain social order.”

Mr Attali does not believe in the domination of one culture - that of the English language - but a “Lego” civilisation which will draw on elements of all civilisations. Boutros Boutros-Ghali, betting notably on the development of translation machines, agreed with this point. As to knowing which will be the great powers of tomorrow, Mr Attali named the United States, despite its relative decline, and possibly Europe if it progresses and cuts its military umbilical cord with the US. According to him, China will have neither the means nor the will to become a superpower before the end of the 21st century. If Russia were to become a superpower again, it would pose a great danger for Europe, but we can imagine a great European power that would include Russia, Mr Attali said.

On the subject of superpowers, Mr Boutros-Ghali highlighted the fact that the issues at stake were not just economic and military resources, but that a political will was necessary. The existence of such a political will may even lead a medium-sized power to play a part on the international scale.

The meeting ended with a discussion of the possible evolution of existing international organisations. Mr Attali considered five options: Financial bankruptcy and progressive disappearance; an inefficient and soporific status quo; privatisation which will transform the organisations into institutions of mutual risk insurance; accrued control of these organisations by the North; and, finally, the emergence of truly global organisations - “a world-organisation, a world currency, and a global fiscal system.” Mr Attali said he believed the fourth possibility would prevail. Mr Boutros-Ghali pointed to phenomena indicating that privatisation was most likely, but expressed concern that the political debate within international organisations now chiefly serves to rubber stamp unilateral action.

Boutros Boutros-Ghali has just published Le Chemin de Jérusalem which traces the origins of the Middle East peace process. Jacques Attali is publishing, this month, a Dictionnaire du XXIe siècle.

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