A convenient solution
J.A. Allan, Professor, Water Issues Group, School of Oriental & African Studies, University of London
Sprinklers irrigate Israeli tomato fields.
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Harvesting wheat in Syria.
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Egyptian fellaheen have little choice but to use traditional irrigation
methods.
Wars will be fought for
water. The dire prediction persists years after it was voiced by such leading figures
as Jordan’s King Hussein and Boutros Boutros Ghali of Egypt. Indeed, according to
this gloomy scenario, the Middle East and North Africa appear to be doomed. This
area, known as the MENA region, was the first in history to run out of water in the
1970s, in the sense that it became unable to meet all of its needs. But before panicking
over the pessimists’ predictions, consider a critical factor. The region’s leaders
have managed to tap into a major source of water hydrologists neglect to mention:
virtual water, not actual water but that embedded in commodities like wheat.It would require an inhuman level of courage for a political leader of a country that has enjoyed water security for 5,000 years to announce that supplies are no longer adequate. Instead, leaders insist that supplies are “sufficient”. But this is deceptive. Supplies are “sufficient” for the small amounts needed for drinking: one cubic metre per year per person. They may also cover current domestic and industrial needs, although both of these are on the rise. But there isn’t enough fresh water to cover these demands in addition to the tremendous amounts needed for food production. It takes at least 1,000 cubic metres of low quality water to raise the amount of food an individual needs in a year.
Instead of paying the political costs of publicly recognizing this deficit, leaders rely on the convenient solution of “virtual water”. To raise a tonne of wheat, you need 1,000 tonnes of water. Importing a million tonnes of wheat is the equivalent to importing a billion tonnes (cubic metres) of water. Since the end of the 1980s, the MENA region has been importing 40 million tonnes of cereals and flour annually. More virtual water “flows” into the region each year than flows down the Nile into Egypt for agriculture.
Piping desalinated water to desert farms
Not only is this virtual water readily available, it is extraordinarily cheap. Wheat prices have been falling for the past century. On the current agricultural market which is dominated by the United States and the European Union, wheat is traded at about half the production cost.
So it seems that the MENA region is simply making the most of the situation, importing a highly subsidized product containing a precious resource. Yet depending on international trade for such a vital resource is not socially acceptable in these countries nor is it a strategically secure policy. This partially explains why in the United Arab Emirates desalinated water is either piped kilometres to reach farms in the desert or soil is actually moved from one area to another to build new farms for greater food self-sufficiency. Up until 1991, Saudi Arabia used significant amounts of fossil water–which is extraordinarily pure but non-renewable–to grow corn. “The Great Man-Made River Project” is Libya’s solution to achieving greater food self-sufficiency. The plan is to pump water from deep wells in the north of the country and then send it through underground pipes to irrigate about 200,000 hectares along the Mediterranean coast at an estimated capital cost of $25 billion. These are extreme examples. But consider the case of Egypt, where about 90 per cent of the national water budget goes to agriculture and yet another 7.5 million tonnes of grain, equivalent to 7.5 billion cubic metres of virtual water, were still imported last year to feed the population of about 63 million.
By downplaying the role of virtual water, there is a risk that countries will undervalue their own resources and put off innovative and painful policies. Irrigation water is almost free in Egypt, which makes for a very expensive policy. The same water could bring a hundred times more in returns in the industrial or service sectors. However, there are major political costs involved in such a transition. Almost 40 per cent of the labour force works in agriculture, while most farmers have less than two hectares each. These people cannot suddenly be expected to pay for water or abandon their livelihoods. Time is required to change people’s perceptions of water and to develop a diverse economy capable of creating new jobs in other sectors.
Israel is an interesting case in point. This was a country committed to making the desert bloom. Its farmers have the means to employ the most efficient irrigation systems. And yet, during the past ten years, the government has shown that it is possible to reduce water allocations to agriculture. It is one of the few countries in the world to charge a high proportion of the delivery cost (40 per cent) for irrigation water. But the current prices would have to double or even treble for the real cost of water to be recovered.
Other MENA countries, like Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco, are starting to take the same approach. The trade in virtual water could offer more time and ease the political tensions in making this difficult transition. Or it could be used to avoid dealing with a very real problem.
