2. Overview of progress towards all EFA goals

An effective monitoring of progress towards EFA goals and strategies needs an assessment of the future effort required in terms of additional school places, literacy campaigns, teacher training, educational materials and so forth, as well as the magnitude of the financial gap that needs to be closed in order to achieve the goals and targets set for 2015. Such an assessment is crucial because what cannot be measured cannot be managed. Given the importance of national ownership of the EFA process, it is particularly vital to have reliable data at the country level. If statistics are not available to countries, there is not much that can be done in terms of overall planning. Providing quality data will require a combination of action at the national level and support at the sub-regional, regional and global levels. The development of indicators that are accepted both nationally and internationally is necessary to sustain broad support for the objectives of EFA.

Goals with a deadline

The Dakar Framework assigned a timetable for reaching three specific goals:
- achievement of universal primary education by 2015;
- elimination of gender disparities in primary and secondary education by 2005 and achieving gender equality in education by 2015;
- achievement of a 50% improvement in the levels of adult literacy by 2015.

Very little data on progress towards these goals have been developed beyond what were also available at Dakar. In keeping with the objective of establishing baseline data for the continued monitoring of progress towards EFA, the following is a summary of the current situation.

Achievement of quality universal primary education (UPE) by 2015

Overall enrolment trends suggest that, over the last quarter-century, considerable progress has been made in expanding the capacity of primary school systems in all regions of the world. The total number of primary school pupils rose from an estimated 500 million in 1975 to more than 660 million in 1997.

If this pace of increase were to continue, the number of pupils in the world's primary schools could reach 700 million in 2005 and 770 million in 2015. If realized, nearly all of this increased demand for school places would occur in developing regions - in particular in Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in Latin America and the Caribbean and the Arab States. These data can be seen in Figure 1, which shows trends in total enrolment in primary education between 1975 and 2015 by region.

Figure 1 also shows that a sizeable proportion of pupils enrolled in primary education are those outside the official primary-school age group, especially in developing regions. Because of late entry to primary education and/or frequent repetitions, most of these pupils are over-aged. A high incidence of repetition may lead to dropping out and thus has a negative effect on the internal efficiency of the education systems. The existence of large numbers of over-aged pupils - a common situation in developing countries - must not prevent access to school for those of official school age, and thereby delay the achievement of the UPE goal.

Many individual countries have achieved dramatic progress in expanding enrolments, improving schooling retention and completion rates and reducing gender disparities. For example, enrolments in Uganda, Malawi and Mauritania have doubled in some five years, approaching or surpassing 100% Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER). Benin and Guinea-Bissau have steadily expanded primary enrolments.

Some regions are also close to the goal of UPE (see Figure 2). This is already a reality in developed and transition countries, and Eastern Asia/Oceania and Latin America/Caribbean are close to reaching the goal. Although overall expansion of enrolment has outpaced population growth in recent years, the rate of increase still falls short of the pace necessary to meet the goal of universal enrolment in all regions. There are still more than 100 million children out of school, and 60% of these are girls. One child in four drops out without completing five years of basic education. Table 1 shows the level of effort that would be required to accomplish the goal of universal primary education by 2015.

These data show that, to achieve UPE by 2015, primary schools in developing countries will need to accommodate about 156 million more children than in 1997, an increase of 27%. At a minimum, this will require maintenance of the previous enrolment effort, i.e. an average annual increase of 8.7 million pupils. For most countries, school enrolment growth of 5% per year over the next 15 years would suffice to achieve EFA goals, though several will need to grow at up to 10% per year.

Meanwhile, there are serious concerns regarding the trends in numbers of out-of-school children in the developing regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Asia and the Arab States, which are home to 95% of out-of-school children (see Figure 2). Due to a high demographic growth, the expansion in enrolment has not allowed any substantial reduction in the number of out-of-school children in these regions.

- A particular effort will be needed in sub-Saharan Africa, which will have to accommodate more than half of the additional school places required at the global level. This corresponds to an almost 150% increase from its 1997 enrolment level, or an annual enrolment increase of 4.9 million - which is almost three times the effort undertaken during the period 1990-97.

- Particularly large increases of the order of more than 10 times the previous effort will need to be made in Angola, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho, Liberia, Niger and Somalia.

- Southern Asia will have to enrol about 40 million more children - an increase of one-third - requiring at least the same pace of effort as in the previous period, 1990-97. Bhutan needs more than ten times the previous effort.

- The Arab States need twice the previous effort to accommodate some 23 million additional children, representing an increase of 72%.

In summary, these findings show clearly that the task of ensuring UPE by 2015 may be more difficult than it was in the past decade unless a major effort is undertaken to accelerate the current trends, especially in the geographic regions cited above. The concluding chapter of this report discusses some of the forms that such an effort might take.

Elimination of gender disparities in primary and secondary education by 2005 and achieving gender equality in education by 2015

The objective of UPE also implies the elimination of all forms of disparities, including the gender gaps that are the most visible inequity in access to education in many developing countries.

During the past decade, the progress towards UPE was accompanied by the reduction of gender gaps in all regions except sub-Saharan Africa. While the gender disparity is not a serious concern in most of the Latin America/Caribbean and Eastern Asia/Pacific countries, it remains one in many Arab States, sub-Saharan African and Southern Asian countries. Importantly, gender disparities are most pronounced in regions or countries with relatively low enrolment rates (see Figure 3).

Many individual countries have taken fruitful measures to address gender inequities in both their formal and non-formal education systems. For instance, the government of India has encouraged separate girls' schools wherever necessary, provided special scholarships to girls in several states, and made education free for girls at all levels, including university education. India also supports teacher recruitment procedures in almost all the states seeking to ensure that at least 50% of the positions are filled by female teachers. In Pakistan, a Prime Minister's project on non-formal basic education focuses on villages and hamlets where separate schools for girls are not available, or where girls' participation rate at primary level is low or where female illiteracy is pronounced.

Table 2 classifies countries according to the gender parity index that shows the ratio between the girls' and boys' net enrolment ratios (NER). An index of 1 indicates parity between girls' and boys' enrolment. Countries for which data are available are classified into three main groups, from those with the high gender disparity in participation in primary education to those where gender equality has been achieved.

When envisaging the elimination of gender gaps in education by 2005, particular attention needs to be given to the countries belonging to the first group (column 2), where only 6 to 8 girls are enrolled for every 10 boys. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, and are characterized by the low level of their enrolment ratios.

The second group (column 3) comprises countries approaching gender parity in enrolments. For most of them the general levels of enrolment are still low, especially in the sub-Saharan African countries of this group.

The third group (column 4) comprises countries that have achieved (or are on the brink of achieving) gender parity in enrolments. Most of these countries have achieved a relatively high level of enrolment, and some of them have already reached UPE. In a few countries there is gender disparity in favour of girls - a phenomenon that deserves just as much attention as discrimination against girls.

Achievement of a 50% improvement in the levels of adult literacy by 2015

The EFA Assessment in Dakar in April 2000 revealed that, despite the global effort since Jomtien, there were still more than 550 million female and 300 million male adult illiterates. The education level of most adults in developing countries remains too low to enable them to participate effectively in a global economy.

Nevertheless, important progress has been made in some countries, for instance in India, where the latest dicennial census for 2001 indicate that during the previous decade literacy rates have increased by 10%, and that gender disparities concerning access to literacy decreased by 7 points; and, for the first time since independence, the absolute numbers of illiterates has decreased by 32 million persons. In Zambia, the national literacy campaign launched in 1990 resulted in an increased literacy rate from 55% in 1990 to 68% in 1996. China, in spite of a 16% increase of the adult population, has recorded a decrease of the number of adult illiterates from 182 million to 153 million, a reduction of 18.8%.

To achieve the literacy goal set by the World Education Forum, the world's adult illiteracy rate has to be reduced from its current level of 21% to about 10% by 2015. In other words, the literacy rate for adults must reach at least 90% by 2015. To accomplish this goal the number of adult literates will have to increase annually by 92 million or a total increase of 1.4 billion, or 42% more than the current figure. Such a rate represents a pace of 1.3 times the previous effort.

Table 3 shows the pace that will be required by various regions. While some regions of the world, notably Eastern Asia/Oceania and Latin America/Caribbean, could meet the Dakar literacy goal by maintaining almost the same efforts as in the past decade, other regions face substantial challenges. The challenge is particularly strong in the least-developed countries, where success as a group will require more than a doubling of past efforts. Efforts of a similar magnitude will be required in two of the E-9 (most populous) countries, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Lessons from different countries' experiences show how difficult it is to implement policies for the eradication of adult illiteracy. To be effective, such policies require clear identification of priority target illiterate populations. Depending on conditions in the particular country, such targets might be a particular age-group, a disadvantaged group such as women, the disabled, rural or semi-urban poor, ethnic minorities or indigenous populations. Hence, the educational or literacy approaches need to be tailored to specific economic and cultural contexts so as to be relevant and attractive for the potential learners. The magnitude of the task of achieving adult literacy can be assessed using population and literacy pyramids showing the literacy trends and distribution by sex and by age group within changing demographic contexts, as shown in Figure 4.

Data on the breakdown of literacy rates by age and sex are for the most part based on rough estimates and should be interpreted with caution. Nevertheless, as shown in Figure 4, the data indicate, among other things, that the older the population, the higher the incidence of illiteracy, especially among females.

The magnitude of the EFA challenge implies that, in addition to seeking to assure that all primary-school-age children have access to schooling, more efforts are needed to develop adult and non-formal education so as to reach those children, youths and adults whose learning needs may not be adequately addressed by conventional or formal education.

In view of the current EFA trends, most experts, as well as EFA partners agencies, are convinced that it is impossible to achieve the EFA goals and targets without reinforcing the non-formal education system (NFE), especially in poor countries. Though universal primary enrolment remains the principal means of ensuring basic education for all, it is limited to those in appropriate age groups, those for whom schools are accessible and, in many cases, those who can afford the costs of schooling.

In many countries, literacy training and NFE have been found to be effective tools in reaching children who cannot or do not enrol in primary school, those who drop out from school, and youth and adults who relapse into illiteracy and those who have never benefited from any schooling. Such countries include members of the E-9 group of most populous nations (Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria and Pakistan).

Table 4 gives an overview of the status of literacy and non-formal education in the E-9 countries. According to the Indian EFA report, for example, in 1997 some 7 million children in remote and inaccessible rural areas and urban slums, especially girls and the children from disadvantaged groups, had gained access to primary education through NFE channels. Such efforts account for about 3.5% of the total enrolment at the primary stage and a reduction of over 1% in overall drop-out rate. While small in numerical terms, these gains are significant because they show the potential impact of working through news institutions to reach unschooled persons.

While many educational authorities are fully aware of the need to expand literacy and non-formal education, these sub-sectors still suffer from lack of recognition. They are often perceived as 'second-class', and thus are rejected by some parents and communities. Moreover, both national and external funding to EFA tend to favour primary formal education to the detriment of adult and NFE. As a consequence, most adult and NFE activities are run by NGOs and non-profit organizations rather than government agencies.

The development of this educational sub-system is also hampered in many countries by lack of reliable information as well as weak policy and planning. Such a situation makes the monitoring of progress difficult and thus contributes to a waste of resources.

Other goals

The following goals do not have a specified time table, but it is understood that they fit into the overall 2015 objective of education for all.

Expand early childhood care and education

Early childhood care and education embraces the full range of activities intending to provide for the healthy growth and developmental needs of children, from birth to starting school. Experiences also show that this period is generally broken into two stages. The first stage is from birth to three years, when children may be accommodated in day-nursery centres or in other health and social care institutions. This first EFA goal is currently monitored and assessed mainly through the access to pre-primary education, generally intended for children between the ages of three to six years. Such preschool activities are designed to foster learning as well as emotional and social development, thus preparing young children for primary education.

Access to pre-primary education is still very limited in most developing countries, as shown in Figure 5. Available data show that, except for Latin America, pre-primary schools in developing regions accommodate less than half of the eligible young children. The lowest enrolment ratios are observed in sub-Saharan Africa, where 15 out of 23 countries for which data are available have a gross enrolment ratio of less than 10%. The average (unweighted) enrolment ratios of 14% for sub-Saharan Africa and 27% for Arab States seem very low, compared to the early childhood development objectives set in Dakar.

Figure 5 shows also a wide variation in enrolment ratios across all the developing regions.

Enrolment ratios in pre-primary education are still low in most regions despite the fact that many countries have seen substantial increases in their total enrolments over the last decade. Particular mention should be made of Latin America where half of the nineteen countries increased their gross enrolment ratios in pre-primary education by more than 20 percentage points since 1990. This was also the case for some countries in other regions such as Brunei Darussalam, India, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mauritius, Samoa, Thailand and Vanuatu.

It should be noted that the available data on pre-primary education are mainly limited to those provided by ministries of education. Information on non-publicly funded programmes and on programmes run through sectors other than education (e.g. ministries of health or social affairs, community based projects, etc.) is generally weak. Therefore, the results reported above may not cover all pre-primary education. In order to have a more complete picture of the actual situation for effective monitoring of EFA goals, there needs to be better information from providers of early childhood care and education programmes both in the public and private sectors.

Promote the acquisition of life-skills by adolescents and youth

The Dakar Framework stipulates that the learning needs of all young people should be met through learning and life-skills programmes. It also stresses the importance of life-skills in connexion with the improvement of quality of education. Direct measures of skills can be better predictors of successful participation in society than other indicators such as education credentials. Areas such as problem solving, teamwork, knowledge about hygiene and nutrition are directly linked to the social and economic success of the young and adult population.
Some of the inter-agency flagship programmes (see Chapter 4) that deal with HIV/AIDs prevention, school health and girls' education, broaden the range of programmes available for young people and contribute to enhancing life-skills.

Challenges in measuring the quality of education

The Dakar Framework for Action provides a broad view of quality which includes attention to curriculum and teaching methods, life skills for coping with HIV/AIDS, teacher education and training, home-based early childhood care from birth, mother-tongue education, improved learning materials, local alternatives in materials production, learning standards, management and Education Management and Information Systems, links between formal and non-formal education, and integrating democratic values, all from a gender perspective.

The focus on primary school completion rates
A growing body of research suggests that 5-6 years of schooling is a critical threshold and that attention needs to be focused on the number of pupils who complete their primary school education, not simply the numbers who start.

Thus the proportion of children completing a primary school education is a particularly meaningful indicator of EFA progress. Even in countries where the NER is close to, or over, 100%, the proportion of the primary age group reaching grade 5 can be very low. Literacy surveys from Togo, Niger and elsewhere indicate that adults with less than six years of primary education remain functionally illiterate and non-numerate for the rest of their lives.

Completion rates are typically far lower for girls, the poor, children living in rural areas and pupils living in situations of conflict. Although countries may technically have achieved EFA on the basis of their NERs, they may still have major problems of retention in particular among more vulnerable or disadvantaged groups. Thus both focusing on completion rates and looking at the indicators for vulnerable groups are crucial for true monitoring of EFA.

The UNESCO Institute for Statistics
In keeping with the importance of accurate data that looks at indicators of quality as well as measures of access, the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) was established in 1999 with a mandate to develop better information systems for monitoring progress in UNESCO's fields of competence including towards EFA and to promote a culture of evidence-based policy-making and decision-taking. UIS has begun the process of building partnerships with various organizations and will eventually do so with civil society and NGOs. Immediately after Dakar, the UIS launched Survey 2000 to collect the core data on education needed at the international level for monitoring education policies in general and EFA in particular. In 2000, as part of the Survey 2000 work programme, the Institute brought together over 300 education and statistics experts from 180 countries for the first round of an annual series of regional workshops aimed at familiarizing countries with the procedures for collecting good quality and reliable data on education.

An EFA Observatory has also been established within the UIS with major responsibility for the evaluation, monitoring and statistical interpretation of goals and targets set in the Dakar Framework for Action. To perform this task successfully, a major priority must be the development and sustained production of reliable indicators relevant to current EFA goals and targets. The Institute collects the data required to calculate 16 of the original 18 EFA indicators - 13 of which are included in Survey 2000 (see Appendices). Only one EFA indicator for which data could be collected via Survey 2000 was omitted, and the totality of core data will be used to develop new indicators as well and to pilot them in statistically more able countries. In the future, all indicators which can be disaggregated by gender will be disaggregated.

The importance of assessment
Focusing attention on the quality of education presumes the ability to define and measure it. Countries seriously pursuing EFA need to develop reliable means of describing the knowledge and skills that comprise quality basic education. Moreover, they must develop the technical and organizational capacity both to measure student achievement against these standards and to determine how school systems are carrying out their responsibilities.

Countries in both the developed and developing world have showed a growing interest in assessment in recent years for reasons that relate not only to improved teaching and learning, but also to accountability and efficient allocation of resources, both human and financial. Significant improvements have been made in recent years in techniques for measuring student progress, and considerable attention has been paid to ways in which developing countries can use data to make the most effective and efficient use of limited resources.

Recent years have brought an intensification of efforts to develop assessment capacity in developing countries. A good example is the Southern Africa Consortium for Measuring Educational Quality (SACMEQ), which was undertaken by ministries of education in co-operation with the International Institute for Educational Planning of UNESCO. This project, which has carried out a series of studies of reading proficiency in African nations, has made it a priority to enhance the research and evaluation capability of participating countries. Continued efforts to develop local technical capacity in assessment is crucial to attaining the goal of EFA.