Population Programmes Are Being Successful
It seems clear that the family size desires of men and women are influenced by a variety of factors: mortality declines; increased social opportunity, especially for women; employment opportunities; incomes; and educational access. Women and men cannot realise these desires, however, without the means to translate social opportunity and choice into action. The creation and progressive strengthening of population programmes over the last 30 years – along with the development and distribution of more-effective and safer forms of contraception – has been a crucial catalyst in reducing fertility rates. Population programmes have been given credit for about half the decline in fertility since 1960.
The spread of information about family planning techniques and new ideas about social issues – including the rights of women to reproductive health and equality of opportunity – facilitates the fertility transition. Discussion and debate among relatives, friends and neighbours, the diffusion of ideas between communities, and mass media images trigger changes in preferences and fertility behaviour. This may explain why fertility changes often occur more rapidly in countries where various channels connect communities and individuals, and more slowly where such social interaction is more difficult. If this is the case, improving communications could help to speed up the fertility transition where it has been slow.
Predicting what will happen at the end of the fertility transition in a particular country – whether fertility will stabilise at below, near or above replacement level, or will bounce back upwards or have some other unstable pattern – remains a critical challenge for demographers.
