Ageing Populations
A gradual ageing of the global population in the decades to come is all but certain. The reasons for this trend reflect the substantial human progress of this century – lowered infant and child mortality; better nutrition, education, health care and access to family planning; and longer life expectancies.
This transition is already well under way in the more-developed regions, where the median age has risen from 29 in 1950 to 38 today and is projected to plateau at around 46 by 2050. In the less-developed regions, this process is just beginning; since 1950, the median age has fluctuated between 19 and 24 (its current level). Africa, the world’s most rapidly growing region, is also the youngest, with a median age of only 18. The median age in all the less-developed regions is projected to begin a gradual rise to 37 by 2050.
There is every reason to believe that societies in both the more- and less-developed regions can adjust to the higher median age of their inhabitants and the increasing ratio of old to young people. Yet, undoubtedly, this new era will present distinct challenges. The world’s people have never been this healthy or lived this long. In 1950, average life expectancy globally was 46 years; in 2050 average life expectancy is projected to be 76, and the median age is projected to be 38.
Countries in more-developed regions are already coming to grips with this unprecedented transition and the issues that it presents with respect to the labour pool, care for the elderly, and the potential for population decline.
Around the world, but particularly in the more-developed regions, countries with ageing populations will face challenges providing support and medical care for the elderly. The percentage of young dependants will decline, but the proportion of older dependants will increase.
