The Youth Factor
Today, as a result of high fertility in the recent past, there are more young people than ever – over 1 billion between ages 15 and 24. They are entering their peak childbearing years. In all developing countries, the proportion of the population aged 15-24 peaked around 1985 at 21%. Between 1995 and 2050, it will decline from 19 to 14%, but actual numbers will grow from 859 million to 1.06 billion.
These numbers ensure continued population growth, even if young people choose to have smaller families than their parents had. Indeed, populations would continue to grow for several decades even if “replacement-level” fertility were reached immediately.
This phenomenon, known as ‘population momentum’, will account for up to two thirds of the projected population growth worldwide, more in countries where fertility has fallen most quickly. In Thailand, for instance, where three people out of ten are under age 15, the population is projected to grow by 19% between 1999 and 2025, even though the average couple is having fewer than two children. Raising the average age at which women have their first child from 18 to 23 would reduce population momentum by over 40%.
Globally, lower birth rates create the strong possibility of a ‘demographic bonus’ in the less-developed regions in the next couple of decades, as a ‘bulge’ of young people grow up and become part of the work force while fewer children are born. If enough employment opportunities can be created, these new workers could well result in greater productivity and economic development, and generate substantial revenues for health care, education and social security. There is every reason to believe that societies in both the more- and less-developed regions will benefit from this change.
