Changing Regional Distribution Of World Population
Population growth will be concentrated in certain regions; elsewhere, human numbers will stabilise or even decline. Within countries, populations will continue to shift from rural to urban areas, while becoming increasingly older and better educated. Migration between countries will be an increasingly important factor in international relations and the composition of national populations.
Regional Distribution of Population, 1950-2050
As the global population has doubled over the past 40 years, the shifts in geographical distribution of that population have been equally remarkable. In 1960, 2.1 billion of the world’s 3 billion people lived in less-developed regions (70% of the global population). By late 1999, the less-developed regions had grown to 4.8 billion (80%); 98% of the projected growth of the world population by 2025 will occur in these regions.
Africa, with an average fertility rate exceeding five children per woman during the entire period, has grown the fastest among regions. There are almost three times as many Africans alive today (767 million) as there were in 1960. Asia, by far the most populous region, has more than doubled in size (to over 3.6 billion), as has Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, the population of Northern America has grown by only 50%, and Europe’s has increased by only 20% and is now roughly stable.
Africa’s share of global population is projected to rise to 20% in 2050 (from only 9% in 1960), while Europe’s share is projected to decline from 20 to 7% over that same period. In 1960 Africa had less than half the population of Europe; in 2050 it may be approaching three times as many people.
The altered balance of population distribution among regions does not in itself pose a problem, so long as development progresses everywhere and population growth is balanced by the development of social and economic capacity. The challenge remains to create conditions that will enable countries in all regions to adopt policies and strategies that foster equitable development.
