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| 2.
The demographic challenge to education for all |
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If education is to provide, in the longer term, part of a successful
answer to population growth and other societal problems, it
will first be necessary to develop education systems capable
of bearing the burden of hopes and expectations that are being
placed upon them. In the short term, the pressure of population
growth on education systems, together with the paucity of resources,
are the dominant issues in the developing countries. |
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|
Achieving universal basic education can represent very different
challenges for different countries, depending on the human and
financial national resources that can be mobilised as well as
the rate of population growth and the age structure of the population:
the resources necessary to achieve universal basic education
may be substantial in a situation where the population is very
young and where this young population is growing rapidly - as
is the case in many African countries. Often, the largest efforts
to expand basic educational provision are required precisely
in those countries that have the least resources to meet the
challenges, considering in particular that it is not enough
just to create more study places but the quality of educational
provision must be simultaneously ensured. |
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|
The preceding section has illustrated broad trends in demography
and economic development and the impact that education can have
on them. This section examines the implications these trends
have on education, focusing on progress made after Jomtien towards
universal basic education. The analysis is based largely on
a few key quantitative indicators, that focus mainly on primary
schooling (although secondary education and literacy are considered
as well) rather than the more complex and less measurable dimensions
of non-formal education, such as life-skills education for youths
and adults, as well as basic education conveyed by the media.
|
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| 1.1
Global progress towards universal basic education |
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|
Whereas in the long run education tends to reduce population
growth rates, the developing countries are currently confronting
the challenge of accommodating a rapidly growing school age
population, while also facing severe shortages of resources.
|
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| Despite
demographic pressure, educational progress has been substantial
in many parts the developing world. |
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|
Nevertheless, in many parts of the developing world educational
progress has been substantial over the 27-year period between
1970 and 1997. Estimated adult literacy rates in the world rose
from 63 to 78 per cent during this period. World total enrolment
at the primary level increased from 411 million in 1970 to 542
million in 1980, and to 668 million in 1997. This growth took
place exclusively in the developing world, which is the theatre
of 97 per cent of the world's population growth, where primary
enrolment increased from 313 million in 1970 to 579 million
in 1997. |
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| Fig. 2.1:
Global enrolment trends in primary education, 1970-1997 |
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|
|
| Source:
UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1999, Table II.S.3 |
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|
Developing
countries have also spent increasing shares of national income
on education.
|
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Developing countries have also spent increasing shares of
a generally growing Gross National Product on education. Additionally,
much has been invested to explore new instructional methods
and new delivery systems, both in the formal and non-formal
sectors of learning. However, these efforts have been insufficient
to provide every school age child in the world with a quality
place in school.
|
| |
|
|
Ten years ago, the Jomtien conference drew attention to the
major gaps that still separated many countries from achieving
universal basic education. These comprised more than 100 million
children, including at least 60 million girls, not having access
to primary schooling; more than 960 million illiterate adults,
two thirds of whom were women; another 100 million children
and countless adults failing to complete basic education programmes;
millions more satisfying the attendance requirements but not
acquiring essential knowledge and skills. Today, those children
will have become adults and many of them are now asked to shape
the future of their countries, but the question is whether fewer
of today’s children and adults suffer from educational and therefore
social exclusion. |
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| Since
Jomtien total enrolment in primary education has grown in all
developing regions. |
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|
Between 1990 and 1997, primary education enrolments in all developing
countries, taken together, grew by about 72 million pupils.
In the seven years following Jomtien, the primary education
total enrolment grew at almost double the pace than that observed
during the 1980s. |
| |
|
Southern Asia and Eastern Asia and Oceania are the two regions
that were most effective in expanding enrolment over the period
1990-1997: a combined total of more than 41 million. In Sub-Saharan
Africa, the average annual growth went from about 1.4 million
pupils during the 1980s to 2.4 million during the 1990s. A
major effort was sustained by the group of the 48 least developed
countries, where 15 million more pupils enrolled in primary
education between 1990 and 1997, with an average annual increase
of 1 million enrolments higher than in the previous decade.
|
| |
| Fig. 2.2:
Total enrolment in primary education, 1980-1997 |
|
|
| Source:
1999 UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, Table II.S.3 |
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|
These results illustrate not only that developing countries
have undertaken huge efforts to progress towards the goal of
universal primary education, but also that rates of progress
are increasing. |
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| Policy
strategies range from decentralisation and the building of new
partnerships … |
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|
Many of the less developed countries organised national policy
meetings on Education for All in the early 1990s and several
of them adopted EFA policies and plans. Decentralisation has
been one of the responses to the common need of expanding access
to schooling (UNDP, UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, 1996b). Some
African countries south of the Sahara, for example, including
Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Tanzania and Zimbabwe, adopted measures
to give more responsibility to local communities for basic education.
Several Latin American countries, in order to better adapt schools
to local needs, are now defining a core curriculum that leaves
space for subject matter geared to the local environment. Attempts
have been made in this region also to grant schools more autonomy.
China’s decentralisation of education was mentioned at the mid-decade
review in Amman as one successful example of shared ownership
between all levels of government including village communities. |
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|
Decentralisation called for new partnerships for the provision
of basic education. The Primary School Development Programme
in Sri Lanka offers an example of targeting the expansion of
enrolment and the enhancement of the learning environment by
means of close cooperation between government officials, schools
and parents. The Sudan’s Basic Education Project for the Internally
Displaced Children is an example of a partnership that involves
the central government, UN agencies, NGOs, religious institutions,
bilateral aid agencies and the displaced communities, with the
aim of providing some schooling to a population of two million
children highly heterogeneous from the linguistic and religious
points of view comprised in the war-torn zone. The Pratham Mumbay
Education Initiative in Mumbay (former Bombay) is an example
of a partnership among educators, community groups, corporate
sponsors, and government officials that succeeded, among other
things, to revamp over 1200 primary schools. Finally, school
cluster projects in several East Asian countries exemplify partnerships
among neighbouring schools to share resources and expertise. |
| |
|
|
As it was stressed at the Amman mid-decade review, neither decentralisation
nor the building of new partnerships are easy to attain, but
if properly managed they may increase the capacity of education
systems to achieve Education for All goals. The process of decentralisation
implies on the one hand the training of community actors for
enabling them to participate in the educational development
and on the other the establishment of monitoring and accountability
structures to assess and follow up the way responsibilities
are shared and carried out. |
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|
| … to
introducing instruction in the mother tongue … |
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|
Introducing mother tongue instruction in the early years of
schooling, as well as in non-formal education programmes and
in adult literacy courses, was pin pointed as another strategy
making basic education more accessible and effective. This was
also found to be one of the elements characterising a number
of countries from all of the less developed regions that have
succeeded to universalise primary education (Mehrotra 1998).
In many developing countries there are from six to 400 local
languages or more. In many cases, for promoting national unity
as well as for facilitating administration and commerce, one
language has been adopted and this is also the language of instruction
but has often nothing at all in common with the local language.
According to the estimates of a pilot study commissioned by
UNESCO and UNICEF on the conditions of primary schools in some
of the least developed countries, in nine out of fourteen countries,
more than 80 per cent of the pupils were being taught in a language
different from that used at home, and in seven countries their
proportion was higher than 90 per cent (Schleicher et al. 1995).
Conversely, research findings have documented the link between
instruction in the mother tongue and learning achievement, demonstrating
that, in order to become literate in the dominant or official
language students must start to read in their mother tongue
(Shiefelbein, 1994). This approach was promoted in several African
countries South of the Sahara (such as Benin, Mozambique and
Senegal), in Asia, as well as in Latin America, where intercultural
bilingual education gained legitimacy to the point that several
countries, including Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Paraguay,
changed their constitutions to make provisions for bilingual
education. Most countries in Latin America that have introduced
education in the mother tongue in the early grades report not
only better attendance but also "an improvement in educational
quality, a more harmonious emotional development of the child
and closer ties between the school and the community" (UNDP,
UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, 1996b). |
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| … to
diversifying schooling and to making primary education free. |
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|
Other policy measures aimed at increasing access and retention
ranged from diversifying schooling (such as in India and Bangladesh
where millions of children have been reached through "home schools"
and "community schools" staffed by para-professional teachers,
or in Burkina Faso where satellite schools and non-formal education
centres were introduced to expand access in rural areas, or
in Guatemala where 1,000 community schools were set up in 1997),
to stimulating the demand for schooling (such as through the
"reading for all" festivals and demonstration of educational
technology in Egypt) and undertaking the task of sensitisation
of parents to the benefits of education and promoting non-formal
programmes run by local community for drop-out children (such
as the National Programme on Poverty launched by the government
in Mongolia), to offering the full primary cycle in as many
schools as possible (such as in the Philippines) given that
it was found that dropout rates were highest in centres that
did not offer all primary grades. Finally, some countries made
primary education free during the 1990s, such as Malawi in 1994
and Uganda in 1997, although in this case the resulting massive
expansion of primary enrolments should be evaluated taking into
account retention and completion rates and achievement outcomes.
|
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| As a
result net enrolment ratios increased… |
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|
|
As a result of these concerted efforts, net enrolment ratios
reflect a positive development, showing that overall growth
in enrolment outpaced the growth of the primary school age population.
The net enrolment ratios presented in the following chart represent
the proportion of the official primary school age group, which
varies from country to country depending on the age of entry
to and the duration of primary education, actually attending
school. |
| |
| Fig. 2.3:
Estimated net enrolment ratios of children of primary school
age, 1980-2000 |
| |
|
|
| Source:
UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 1999 estimates and projections,
Table S1. |
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|
Between 1980 and 2000, the net enrolment ratio of children of
primary school age rose in all developing regions taken together
from 75.7 to 84.8 per cent. During the 1990s, some progress
was observed in each of the less developed regions; the most
remarkable changes were observed in Latin America and the Caribbean
and Southern Asia, where net enrolment ratios increased by 6.3
and 6.1 percentage points respectively. In Sub-Saharan Africa
the net enrolment ratio increased by 3.6 percentage points,
while during the 1980s it had decreased by 1.3 points. Finally,
the least developed countries taken together increased their
net enrolment ratio by 5 percentage points between 1990 and
2000, against an increase of 0.7 points during the preceding
decade. The increase of the shares of the child population enrolled
in school in Sub-Saharan Africa, in Southern Asia and in the
group of least developed countries is even more remarkable since
it has occurred against the obstacles posed by a continuing
and sustained growth of the school age population. |
| |
| … although
marked variations remain within regions and countries. |
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|
It should be noted, however, that considerable variations exist
within the same region and in many cases even within the same
country, with rural enrolment lagging significantly behind urban,
or with marked disparities between provinces or states, as for
example in India where 9 out of 10 primary school age children
go to school in Kerala, while in Bihar only half do (UNICEF,
1999). |
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|
|
Several factors, including demography, are slowing down the
pace of progress. |
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|
|
Several factors account for the difficulties met by several
countries to progress towards universal primary enrolment, as
well as the other EFA goals, at the desired pace. |
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|
In Sub-Saharan Africa drought, famine, internal conflicts and
political instability in many countries were compounded with
a population growth that, increasing at an annual rate of 3.1
per cent, remains unsustainably high. While in one of the Sub-Saharan
regions, Southern Africa, the total fertility rate declined
sharply to 3.4 births per woman, Middle, Eastern and Western
Africa have the world’s highest fertility, with total fertility
rates ranging from 5.5 to 6.2 births per woman on average. This,
together with the economic pressures from debt repayment and
unfavourable terms of trade, slowed the economic growth to less
than 2 per cent for the region as a whole and increased the
number of people living below the poverty line. |
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|
In the Arab States region an annual rate of population growth
of 2.6 per cent, second only to that of Sub-Saharan Africa was
coupled by an economic recession at the beginning of the decade
and a decrease in oil prices on the world market later, imposing
a heavier burden on resources, especially in the poorer countries.
Moreover, the Gulf War in 1991 and the sanctions against Iraq
as well as conflicts in Algeria, Sudan and the West Bank and
Gaza disrupted education. |
| |
|
|
Latin America and the Caribbean is the region with the largest
economic disparities between rich and poor, and indigenous and
impoverished populations face difficulties in getting access
to quality education. |
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|
|
In the region of Eastern Asia and Oceania several countries
including Indonesia, Mongolia and Thailand, went through economic
and climatic crises that threatened educational progress and
made it impossible for poor families to pay for their children’s
education. Other countries, such as Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic
Republic, Viet Nam and Myanmar that have gone through years
of conflict in their recent history, continue to experience
poverty. |
| |
|
|
In Southern Asia nearly half of the population lives in dramatic
poverty, with less than one dollar a day. Child labour is a
persistent problem, being both a cause and a consequence of
low enrolment and high dropout rates. |
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|
The absolute number of school children of primary school age
that are not enrolled offers an indication of the gap between
EFA goals and current realities in equipping all of today’s
children and tomorrow’s adults with the minimal educational
skills needed to, among others, survive, develop, live and work
in dignity, participate in development and continue learning. |
| |
|
|
Based on the 1999 UNESCO estimates and projections, the number
of out-of-school children of official primary school age was
95 million in 1990 and 93 million in 1995. It is expected to
decline further to 88 million in 2000 and 79 million in 2010.
|
|
| Fig. 2.4:
Estimated number of out-of-school children of primary school
age, 1980-2000 |
| |
|
|
| Source:
UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 1999 estimates and projections,
Table S4b. |
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|
The number of out-of-school children decreased sharply in Eastern
Asia and Oceania but also in Southern Asia and Latin America
and the Caribbean. Conversely it increased in Sub-Saharan Africa
and the Arab States. An increase is also observed in the least
developed countries, where the number of out-of-school children
grew by 2.5 million in the five-year period from 1990 to 1995.
But what proportion of this change is due to a real change in
enrolments and what is, conversely, due to the impact of population
dynamics? |
| |
| In some
regions progress is hindered by a continuing increase in the
child population while in other regions the child population
is now stabilising or starting to decline. |
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|
The following charts juxtapose the numbers of primary school
age children enrolled and out-of-school and the total population
of children of primary school age, thus putting the expansion
in enrolment and the changes in the out-of-school population
in perspective with the changes in the size of the corresponding
school age population. |
| |
| Fig. 2.5-2.10:
Primary school age population, primary school age enrolled children
and primary school age out-of-school children, 1980-2010 |
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
| Source:
UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 1999 estimates and projections,
Tables S4a and S4b. |
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|
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|
In Eastern Asia and Oceania the number of out-of-school children
decreased between 1980 and 1990, mostly as a result of the decline
in the primary school age population. But when the primary school
age population began to increase again during the 1990s, the
number of out-of-school children continued to decline and it
is estimated that 99 per cent of the primary school age population
is currently enrolled in school. |
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|
In Latin America and the Caribbean the growth of the primary
school age population is projected to become nil by the year
2000, with the consequence that from that moment onward every
additional place created in school will be a definite step towards
the goal of universal primary education. Based on these estimates
and projections, the number of out-of-school children is expected
to decline from 4.4 to 3.3 million between 2000 and 2010, their
percentage decreasing from 6 to 4 per cent. |
| |
|
The situation is different in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Arab States
and, to a lesser extent, in South Asia. In these regions, the
achievement of universal primary education has been hindered
by the growth and age-structure of their populations. In Sub-Saharan
Africa, the Arab States and South Asia throughout the 1980s
and 1990s efforts to increase primary enrolment ratios had to
work against a growing school age population and according to
projections this will still be the case at least up to 2010
for Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab States, while in South Asia
the primary school age population is projected to stabilise
during the first decade of the new century. Demographic structures
were and are such, that a relatively small economically active
population has to generate the resources needed to provide education
and other basic social services to a large and growing youth
population. Therefore, despite the efforts made in these regions,
shown by the fact that enrolments grew significantly during
the 1980s and even more during the 1990s, the number of out-of-school
children increased in Sub-Saharan Africa and in the Arab States,
as well as in the least developed countries taken together during
the 1990s. The situation is particularly dramatic in Sub-Saharan
Africa where it is estimated that the number of out-of-school
children is currently of 42.8 million and is expected that it
will amount still to 42 million in 2010, although these figures
correspond to a percentage decrease from 38 to 31 per cent.
With current fertility rates the school age population (5-14
year old) of Sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to total to 230
million by 2015 (Ellison 1999), making it a huge if not seemingly
impossible task to achieve education for all. |
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|
If the completion of primary education can enable people to
take care of their own and their family’s hygiene, nutrition
and health, further education is required in order to participate
effectively in today’s knowledge-based economies and societies. |
| |
| Also
in secondary education, enrolment grew faster after Jomtien
than before… |
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|
Total enrolment in secondary education grew by 83 million throughout
the world between 1990 and 1997, of which 74 million were in
developing countries. As was the case for primary education,
in secondary education too, the 1990s witnessed a growth in
enrolment at about twice the pace of that observed during the
decade leading up to Jomtien, indicating the effort sustained
by governments to expand participation in education beyond primary
school age. |
| |
|
|
| Source:
1999 UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, Table II.S.3. |
| |
| … outpacing
the growth of the population at the age of secondary schooling. |
| |
|
Positive trends in net enrolment ratios during the 1990s confirm
that, in general, enrolment of secondary school age youth has
grown faster than the relevant population in the decade following
Jomtien. These secondary net enrolment ratios relate the number
of pupils of the official secondary school age group, irrespective
of the level of education in which they are enrolled, to the
corresponding population of official secondary school age. |
| |
| Fig. 2.12:
Estimated net enrolment ratios of secondary school age youth
in primary and secondary education |
|
|
|
| Source:
UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 1999 estimates and projections,
Table S2. |
| |
| However,
up to half of the secondary school age pupils are enrolled in
primary education … |
| |
|
|
These percentages, however, include a substantive number of
secondary school age youth enrolled in primary education as
repeaters or late entrants, as shown in the following chart. |
| |
| Fig. 2.13:
Estimated number of secondary school age youth enrolled in secondary
education and primary education and out-of-school, 1980-2000 |
| |
|
|
| Source:
Calculated from UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 1999 estimates
and projections, Tables S5a, S5b and S2bis. |
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|
In all regions except Eastern Asia and Oceania the expansion
of education at the level of secondary school age youth has
been partially hindered by population growth. Moreover, because
of the internal inefficiency of education systems, in some countries
more than half of the enrolled pupils of secondary school age
are, in fact, enrolled in primary school, as repeaters or late
entrants. It is only in Eastern Asia and Oceania that, between
1990 and 2000, the expansion of secondary school age enrolments
was coupled with a reduction of the number of secondary school
age pupils enrolled in primary education, indicating an increased
efficiency of the education system, facilitated to an extent
by a decline of the secondary school age population between
1980 and 1990. |
| |
| … so
that, in many developing countries, primary education remains
the only educational opportunity for the majority of children. |
| |
|
Overall the proportion of the official school age population
actually enrolled in secondary education continues to be low.
In the year 2000 it was estimated to be higher than 50 per cent
only in Eastern Asia and Oceania (55 per cent) and the Arab
States (51 per cent). In Latin America and the Caribbean and
in Southern Asia only 44 and 43 per cent respectively of the
official school age population are enrolled in secondary school.
In Sub-Saharan Africa their proportion does not reach one quarter
of the population (24 per cent) and in the least developed countries
taken together, it amounts to only 18 per cent. |
| |
|
|
Based on these estimates, primary education remains the only
educational opportunity for more than 80 per cent of the school
age population in the least developed countries, for more than
75 per cent in Sub-Saharan Africa, and for a percentage ranging
from 45 to 57 per cent in the other developing regions. Although
this situation is likely to change with time, it is now crucial
that primary education be able not only to actually welcome
all of these children but also to answer the basic learning
needs of tomorrow's adults. |
| |
|
If it is true - as the Amman Affirmation states - that, "in
all societies, the best predictor of the learning achievement
of children is the education and literacy level of their parents",
then investments in adult education and literacy will be investments
giving high returns for societies. |
| |
|
| Adults'
literacy rates are associated with the educational attainment
of the school age population. |
| |
|
The children of educated parents are likely to be better educated.
Such findings are well known in industrialized countries, but
it has also been shown that in developing countries, the children
of parents who have at least attained basic education perform
better in school. |
| |
|
|
The literates are not, of course, a random sample of the population.
In most countries, literacy is associated with more urban dwelling
places, a higher degree of involvement in the modern economy
and greater exposure to the mass media - the written media,
obviously, but also radio and television. The impact of literacy
on behaviour, including fertility patterns, probably reflects
something more than education alone. Looked at in another way,
however, the impact of education may be greater than estimated. |
| |
| Literate
members of society tend to be the innovators and communicators. |
| |
|
A good deal of research suggests that the literate members of
a community tend to be the innovators and communicators. Their
knowledge and attitudes, therefore, have an influence on others.
Levels of literacy within a population, thus, constitute a reflection
of the level of development and performance of the education
system and of the country as a whole and can serve as an indication
of the human potential that can further promote social, economic
and cultural development. |
| |
| Literacy
rates grew but the number of illiterates remains constant because
of the impact of population growth. |
| |
|
At the time of Jomtien, over three quarters of the world adult
population had become literate, the percentage of literates
having increased by 6 percentage points since 1980, when it
was 69 per cent. In absolute numbers, the adult literate population
(aged 15 years and over) in the world rose by about 700 million
between 1980 and 1990, going from an estimated 2 billion to
2.7 billion (UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1999). The number
of literates rose further during the 1990s, reaching an estimated
3 billion in 1995 and an estimated 3.4 billion in 2000 (79 per
cent), and is projected to reach 4.2 billion in 2010 (83 per
cent). Despite this remarkable expansion, there remains a large
illiterate population and its size did not change substantially
during the 1990s. Some 882 million adults in the world were
illiterate in 1990 and their number is estimated not to have
substantially changed by the year 2000, totalling 876 million.
Of these, 865 million live in developing countries: 429 million
are in Southern Asia, 146 million in Sub-Saharan Africa, 68
million in the Arab States, 185 million in Eastern Asia and
Oceania and 42 million in Latin America and the Caribbean. |
| |
| Fig. 2.14:
Estimated number of literates and illiterates aged 15 years
and over, 1980-2000 |
| |
|
|
| Source:
UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1999, Table II.S.1, and UNESCO Institute
for Statistics database. |
| |
| While
the population of those who are literate is growing faster than
the population of illiterates, implying that educational progress
is generally outpacing population growth, a significant minority
continues to be left out. |
| |
|
The chart illustrates how the efforts of governments to reduce
illiteracy had to work against the growth of populations, so
that despite the remarkable increase of literates, the illiterates
did not decrease correspondingly. In fact, illiterates became
fewer in absolute numbers only in Eastern Asia and Oceania,
where their numbers dropped from 233 million in 1990 to 185
million in 2000. In all other developing regions their number
either remained constant or rose slightly. |
| |
|
|
Translating these numbers into rates, the percentage of illiterates
in the adult world population aged 15 years and over is estimated
to have decreased from 24.8 to 20.6 between 1990 and 2000. |
| |
| Fig. 2.15:
Estimated illiteracy rates (population aged 15 years and over),
1980-2000 |
| |
|
|
| Source:
UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1999, Table II.S.1. |
| |
|
In the least developed countries taken together, one adult in
two is still illiterate, that is, lacks the basic reading, writing
and numeracy skills essential to develop their own potential
and to actively participate in society. In the year 2000, among
the developing regions, the problem of illiteracy is particularly
serious in Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab States,
with estimated percentages of illiterates of 46, 40 and 39 per
cent respectively. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab
States, illiteracy rates exhibited a pronounced decline between
1990 and 2000, falling from 51 to 40 per cent and from 49 to
39 per cent, respectively. If current rates of progress can
be maintained they are projected to decrease further to 30 per
cent by 2010, in both regions. Conversely, Southern Asia seems
to have fallen behind the other two regions in the pace of the
reduction of illiteracy, by crossing the 50 per cent literacy
threshold only in 1995 and being projected to still have a 39
per cent illiterate adult population in 2010. One of the challenges
in this region is to find cost-effective ways of providing basic
education to vast numbers. |
| |
|
|
In two regions, Latin America and the Caribbean and Eastern
Asia and Oceania, the rate of illiteracy has dropped to under
20 per cent. As might be expected, at this point in time, progress
tends to be slow, since all of those that can be readily reached
and easily served will have already become literate. Those who
remain illiterate are likely to reside in locations that are
difficult to reach or that present other disadvantages. Special
efforts will be needed to reach and serve them. |
| |
|
|
With regard to developed countries, although literacy problems
are on a different scale from developing countries, they do
exist. In 1995/1997, a comparative study of adult literacy in
17 industrialized countries indicated that between 10 and 20
per cent of the adult population had difficulties with basic
reading, writing and numeracy tasks (OECD/Statistics Canada,
forthcoming). Increasing attention is therefore also being paid
in developed countries to the problem of functional illiteracy. |
| |
| Fig. 2.16:
Change in estimated number of illiterates and illiteracy rates
between 1990 and 1997 (1990=100) |
|
|
|
| Source:
Calculated from UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1999, Table II.S.1. |
| |
| Declines
in illiteracy in most developing countries fell short of the
Jomtien target … |
| |
|
If illiteracy rates decreased in all of the less developed regions,
the decline did not progress at the pace targeted at the WCEFA
in 1990. It is only in the developed countries that the decline
in the illiteracy rate during the 1990s approached 50 per cent,
whereas in the developing countries taken as a whole the illiteracy
rate declined by just about 20 per cent. In Eastern Asia and
Oceania, which is the developing region that progressed most
on the road to eradicate illiteracy, the illiteracy rate was
33 per cent less than in 1990. |
| |
| … but
successes in some countries indicate that the target can be
reached if the policies are right. |
| |
|
The slow pace in the reduction of illiteracy rates was probably
due, among other things, to the priority given by governments
to increasing primary school enrolments, although a few countries
have undertaken large efforts to raise adult literacy levels.
Namibia, for example, launched the National Literacy Programme
in 1992, with the target of increasing the adult literacy rate
from 65 per cent to 80 per cent and the efforts succeeded to
a large extent, given that, based on UNESCO statistics, the
adult literacy rate by 2000 is estimated to be 82 per cent.
In Benin, the council of ministers approved in 1992 a special
budget heading for adult education and a decree was issued to
establish a national literacy council. In South Africa a nation-wide
"learning units campaign" was launched in 1996 under the adult
basic education and training plan, aiming at providing literacy
instruction. The Total Literacy Campaigns in India, carried
out as a partnership between the central government's National
Literacy Mission and state governments, operated through a capillary
work of social mobilisation. Also NGOs played an active role
in promoting literacy and out-of-school instruction in many
countries. |
| |
|
Gender disparities are one of the obstacles that hinder achieving
universal basic education and all world conferences during the
1990s, from Jomtien, to the ICPD, to the conference on women
held in Beijing in 1995, stressed the urgent need to close the
gender gap, "both as a matter of equity" - as it is stated in
the final report of the mid-decade EFA meeting held in Amman
in 1996 - "and as the most effective means for responding to
demographic pressures and promoting development". However, the
Amman Affirmation described the progress towards this goal as
"excruciatingly slow" during the first half of the 1990s and
reaffirmed the education of women and girls as the "priority
of priorities". |
| |
| In all
regions gender disparities in primary education are still large
… |
| |
|
Based on the 1999 estimates and projections of the UNESCO Institute
for Statistics, in 1990 some 57 million of out-of-school children
of primary school age were girls. In the year 2000 their number
is estimated to have decreased to 52 million. The share of girls
in the primary school age out-of-school population went from
60 to 59 percent during this same decade. When the least developed
countries are considered alone, however, the number of out-of-school
girls of primary school age is estimated to have increased from
19 million in 1990 to 21 million in 2000, going from 54 to 56
per cent. |
| |
|
|
The following chart compares net enrolment ratios by gender,
considering the absolute gaps between girls' and boys' enrolment
ratios. |
| |
| Fig. 2.17:
Gender gap (M-F) in estimated net enrolment ratios of primary
school age, 1980-2000 |
| |
|
|
| Source:
Calculated from the 1999 estimates and projections of the UNESCO
Institute for Statistics, Table S1. |
| |
| … but
there is considerable regional and between-country variation. |
| |
|
For all regions, significant gender gaps in enrolment ratios
remain. However there is considerable regional variation. Disparities
are more pronounced in Southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa,
where they currently amount to more than 12 and 9 percentage
points respectively. The regions where the gender gaps in primary
school age enrolment are lowest are Eastern Asia and Oceania,
where this gap is currently closing, and Latin America and the
Caribbean. |
| |
|
|
Southern Asia, as well as the Arab States and Eastern Asia and
Oceania witnessed a reduction of the gender gap during the 1990s.
Conversely, for Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean
as well as the least developed countries the gaps are estimated
not to have changed or to be slightly larger in 2000 than they
were in 1990. |
| |
|
|
The overall trend for Sub-Saharan Africa masks wide variations
among countries. In Benin, Chad and Togo, the gender gap in
net primary school age enrolment ratios between boys and girls
exceeded 20 percentage points, during the 1990s. In some cases
the disadvantage of high inequalities disfavouring girls sums
up with the disadvantage of overall low enrolment ratios. Based
on the 1999 provisional estimates and projections of the UNESCO
Institute for Statistics, in Chad, for example, almost one in
two children of primary school age and almost two-thirds of
girls are currently out-of-school. In Togo the overall out-of-school
ratio is lower, 25.5 per cent, but the gender gap is even larger,
with 11 per cent primary school age boys out-of-school and more
than 40 per cent girls. In some countries, (including Gambia,
Malawi, Niger, Senegal and Togo) the gender gap decreased during
the 1990s, while in other countries it increased. Among the
African countries south of the Sahara that have taken special
measures to promote the education of girls are Benin, where
girls in rural areas were exempted from paying school fees,
and Burkina Faso, where pregnant girls were allowed to attend
classes, while the African Girls' Education Initiative works
with governments and communities in over 20 countries to boost
girls' enrolment. |
| |
|
|
The data from several countries suggest that once they are enrolled
girls tend to stay in school longer, with a higher proportion
than that of boys reaching Grade 5 or the final Grade of primary
school. In some countries, this was the case already before
Jomtien, whereas in other countries retention rates of girls
outpaced those of boys during the 1990s, suggesting an impact
of the recommendations concerning gender equality in schooling
made at the Jomtien, Cairo and Beijing conferences, among others,
and the efficacy of initiatives and activities undertaken to
reduce gender disparities in education. |
| |
|
|
Finally, it should be underlined that there are countries where
the gender gap is in favour of girls (such as in Botswana, Lesotho,
Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and the United Republic
of Tanzania), with differences in primary school age net enrolment
ratios ranging from 1 up to 12 percentage points, probably due
to the fact that the demand for child labour penalises boys
more than girls. Among other countries where enrolment ratios
of girls were higher than those of boys are China (in some provinces)
and various Latin American and the Caribbean countries, including
Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Uruguay and Venezuela. |
| |
|
| At the
age of secondary schooling, gender gaps tend to be larger than
at the age of primary schooling ... |
| |
|
|
Taking the secondary school age in general the gap is overall
larger than at the primary school age. In the developing regions
taken together, in fact, the gender gap for the secondary school
age enrolled population amounted to 17.5 percentage points in
1980, 14.6 in 1990 and 11.7 in 2000, while for the primary school
age enrolled population it was 11.8 percentage points in 1980,
8.4 percentage points in 1990 and 6.4 points in 2000. |
| |
| … but
the pattern changes when only the students actually enrolled
in secondary school are considered. |
| |
|
However, for the secondary school age youth actually enrolled
in secondary education the gender gap in 1980 was similar to
the primary school one (11.3 percentage points) but it decreased
at a slower rate (8 percentage points in 2000), indicating that
some priority has been given in general to primary education
in the reduction of gender disparities. |
| |
|
| Gender
disparities are highest at the level of the adult population
... |
| |
|
|
The gender disparity is even higher at the level of the adult
population. Illiteracy is mainly a women's problem and limited
access to educational resources affects women disproportionately
in a large part of the developing world. It is estimated that
in 1990 there were 322 million illiterate men and 560 million
illiterate women (i.e. over 30 per cent of the adult female
population) in the world (UNESCO, 1999 Statistical Yearbook).
In 2000, the situation has not changed substantially: it is
estimated that the number of illiterate women is 563 million
(26.4 per cent), against 313 million illiterate men, the gender
gap having decreased slightly from 13.3 percentage points in
1990 to 11.7 in 2000. The following chart presents the gender
gap in illiteracy rates (F-M) in percentage points by region. |
| |
| Fig. 2.18:
Gender gap (F-M) in estimated illiteracy rates, 1980-2000 |
|
|
|
| Source:
Calculated from UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1999, Table II.S.1. |
| |
| … which
indicates progress achieved in education of girls over recent
decades but also points to the need to close gender gaps through
adult education. |
| |
|
|
The data reveal that in all regions, with the exception of developed
countries where the gap is almost closed and of Latin America
and the Caribbean where the gap is below 5 percentage points,
women remain disproportionately disadvantaged with respect to
basic reading, writing and numeracy skills. The gap is over
10 percentage points in Eastern Asia and Oceania, over 15 percentage
points in Sub-Saharan Africa and well over 20 percentage points
in both Southern Asia and the Arab States. However, in all developing
regions the trend is towards lower gender literacy gaps. |
| |
|
|
Of course, in some cases, strong differences in women's levels
of education are found among different countries within the
same region and even within countries. In Sub-Saharan Africa,
the average number of years of education for women ranges from
over 6 in Zimbabwe and Botswana, to less than 1 in Burundi and
Mali. Similarly, in Latin America and the Caribbean, women benefit
on average from more than 7 years of schooling in Ecuador and
Trinidad and Tobago and only 3 years in Guatemala (United Nations,
Women's education and fertility behaviour, 1995). |
| |
|
| In 13
out of 120 countries, the difference in the literacy rates between
young men and women amounts to twenty per cent. |
| |
|
|
In 13 of the 120 countries for which data were available, the
illiteracy rate of young women aged 15 to 24 years is estimated
to be 20 percentage points or higher than that of the corresponding
male population in 2000. Some of these countries are in Southern
Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan), the
others, with the exception of Yemen, in Sub-Saharan Africa (Benin,
Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique and
Togo). Almost all of them belong to the group of the least developed
countries. Women in these countries - as the Gender-related
Development Index in the 1995 Human Development Report shows
- face a double disadvantage: they suffer from overall low literacy
rates and their educational opportunities remain considerably
lower than men's. |
| |
|
|
Those of the most populous countries that have achieved gender
equality in literacy rates among the youth population or are
close to this goal include China, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico
and Nigeria. China, Indonesia and Mexico have also almost eradicated
illiteracy for the age-cohorts 15-24, having achieved overall
illiteracy rates below 5 per cent by 2000, whereas in Brazil
the corresponding illiteracy rate is 7.5 per cent and in Nigeria
it is 13 per cent. |
| |
|
|
Although many countries had success with policies aimed at reducing
the gender gaps in school enrolment and literacy, in other countries
progress has been slower than desired and an additional effort
is required to provide all women with educational credentials
that enable them to develop their potential and participate
in society. |
| |
|
| Women
are often the poorest of the poor. |
| |
|
|
The educational disadvantage of women is, however, only one
aspect of the discrimination from which they suffer in many
countries where women are the poorest of the poor. Not only
do women have less educational opportunities then men but they
also have lower status in society, are malnourished from the
birth and have limited access to health care, including family
planning and safe motherhood. This chain of interrelated factors,
strongly related to poverty, undermines women's health and results
in high maternal morbidity and mortality. Statistics from the
World Health Organisation show that almost 600,000 women die
every year in the world from pregnancy complications and 99
per cent of these deaths occur in developing countries. Many
times that number of women suffer from severe long-lasting disabilities
as a result of childbirth in these countries. |
| |
|
|
In order to succeed in closing the gender gap in educational
opportunities, against the obstacles posed by poverty and the
demographic pressure, priorities and commitment of governments
would have to be directed at overcoming this tendency to devalue
women that is at the heart of the problem. Promoting gender
equality thus implies not only using all means to improve access
to and participation of girls and women in education but also
conveying through the contents and methods of that education
the value of women and an egalitarian view of human beings. |
| |
|
Not only must many governments expand enrolment at a faster
rate than the growth of their school age population but they
must also ensure that minimum standards of quality are met and
maintained. |
| |
|
| It is
the quality of the educational provision that determines learning
outcomes. |
| |
|
|
Ultimately what matters is not just the volume of participation
in educational activities but, more important, the quality of
the outcomes, which in turn are influenced by the quality of
educational services. The World Declaration on Education for
All stressed that: "Whether or not expanded educational opportunities
will translate into meaningful development - for the individual
or for the society - depends ultimately on whether people actually
learn as the result of those opportunities". In the WCEFA Framework
for Action to Meet Basic Learning Needs, the target following
that of universal primary education was "improvement in learning
achievement such that an agreed percentage of an appropriate
age cohort attains or surpasses a defined level of necessary
learning achievement". By the same token, the Programme of Action
of the ICPD emphasised the importance of "achieving universal
access to quality education". |
| |
|
|
Many countries have made efforts to improve educational quality
and enhance learning achievement. Reforms dealt mainly with
renewing the content of curricula, upgrading teacher performance,
improving teacher training, in particular with the aim to improving
teaching in rural areas, and enhancing learning assessment.
The results of these efforts, as opposed to changes in enrolment,
are difficult to assess but their importance and urgency is
evident when considering rates of dropout and the poor conditions
of instruction in many developing countries. |
| |
|
|
Given the current lack of comparative achievement data for many
developing countries, one of the available proxies often used
for measuring educational quality is the percentage of a pupil
cohort reaching the end of primary school. This indicator is
a measure of the internal efficiency of education systems, that
is, of the relationship between the inputs and the outputs of
the system, in terms of the number of pupils who complete the
cycle in the prescribed number of years. To the extent that
children dropout or repeat grades, the system is considered
inefficient. To improve comparability, the internal efficiency
indicator is calculated using Grade 5 as a common reference
point for all countries, even though the duration of primary
education varies across countries. The percentage of pupils
who enrol in Grade 1 and reach Grade 5 represents the so-called
"survival" or "retention" rate. |
| |
|
| The
school experience of many children in the developing world is
relatively brief and unsatisfactory. |
| |
|
|
In Southern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Sub-Saharan
Africa, less than three out of four pupils reach Grade 5. In
the least developed countries, taken together, their proportion
is even lower with only around half of the pupils remaining
in school after Grade 4. Indeed, many students drop out between
the first and the second grade, having acquired not even the
most basic elements of an education. Many studies have analysed
the causes of dropout, such as health problems, child labour,
high opportunity costs and teen-age pregnancies, among others.
But in many school systems, the underlying reason, even at the
primary level, is that the school promotes the "fittest" pupils,
screening out those with special learning needs. |
| |
| Fig. 2.19:
Survival rates by Grade up to Grade 5 as percentage of a pupil
cohort, 1994-1995 |
| |
|
|
| Source:
Education for All, Status and Trends, 1998. In the legend, N
is the number of countries in the region for which pertinent
data are available for calculating the flow of a pupil cohort
through five years of schooling. The percentage next to it shows
the share of these countries in the total enrolment of the region. |
| |
| Repetition
and drop-out represent a wastage of resources - by one estimate,
16% of education budgets in developing countries are consumed
by dropout and repetition. |
| |
|
|
High rates of repetition also slow the progress of learning
and often tend to lead to dropout by the repeaters, increasing
the cost of education in developing countries and causing wastage.
By one estimate, 16 per cent of education budgets in developing
countries are consumed by the cost of dropout and repetition
in the first four grades of primary school, while the repetition
alone was estimated to cost at least 6 billion US dollars around
1995 (UNESCO, 1998b). Again, this probably reflects both the
poverty of the children concerned and the inability of the school
to respond adequately to their needs. |
| |
|
|
One of the measures adopted to reduce wastage and maintain internal
efficiency is automatic promotion, practised in, among others,
the republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Indian state of Kerala,
Barbados and Zimbabwe. On the one hand, automatic promotion
increases the number of years that low achieving students spend
in school, and it may therefore increase learning, especially
if it is accompanied by support measures including inputs such
as teacher training and instruction materials; on the other
hand it clears the burden of repeaters in the first grades creating
space for new students (Mehrotra, 1998). |
| |
|
| The
school equipment and conditions deteriorated in some countries
after Jomtien. |
| |
|
|
Many experts have expressed concern over the conditions of learning
in the over-crowded schools of the developing world and their
impact upon achievement. In a pilot survey of conditions of
learning in the least developed countries commissioned by UNESCO-UNICEF
and conducted in 1995, it was found that in most countries one-third
or more of students gathered in classes without even a useable
chalkboard. In virtually all of the countries there were no
teaching aids such as wall charts and hardly any pupils ever
saw a world map in their classroom. Moreover, in half the countries,
over 90 per cent of the pupils in the final grade of primary
education did not have a textbook in their mother tongue, over
a third of them did not have a maths textbook in any language
and over a third did not have a desk or writing place, as distinct
from just a place to sit. Based on the responses of school-heads,
it appears that between the Jomtien conference and 1995, the
volume of school equipment and supplies had either remained
constant or had decreased, which means that, given the general
increase in enrolments, the conditions of primary schools had
deteriorated overall. In fact, when asked about the single improvement
most needed, the majority of school heads indicated: "repairs
to buildings", "classroom furniture" and "classroom supplies"
(Schleicher at al., 1995). |
| |
|
|
Given the extreme shortages they face, developing countries
have often tended to define education narrowly to mean schooling
in the sense of enrolment and little more than that. At the
mid-term assessment held in Amman in 1995 to review progress
towards the goals set at the World Conference on Education for
All, it was observed that the "expanded vision of basic education
espoused in Jomtien has often been reduced to a simple emphasis
on putting more children into school: an essential step, but
only one of many measures needed to achieve education for all." |
| |
|
|
One of the chronic problems of developing countries, coming
with the lack of sufficient resources, is the shortage of qualified
teachers, leading to overcrowded classes taught by poorly qualified
and untrained personnel. The expansion of enrolment during the
first EFA decade made it more difficult to improve this situation
and in many countries, multi-grade classrooms in which the teacher
must instruct students of different ages and levels compounds
the problem of large class sizes. |
| |
|
|
The pupil-teacher ratio, which relates the overall number of
teachers to the overall number of students of a country, provides
a broad indicator of the quality of instruction and learning
conditions. Although pupil-teacher ratios cannot be taken as
a precise measure of class sizes, they can in fact be assumed
to correlate with the latter. The following chart (Figure 2.20)
presents pupil-teacher ratios in primary education by region,
comparing the situation in 1990 with that in 1997. |
| |
|
| In the
less developed regions pupil-teacher ratios are twice as large
as in more developed ones. |
| |
|
|
In the less developed regions taken together pupil-teacher ratios
in primary school are twice as large as those in the more developed
ones, while in the least developed countries they are three
times as large. A high pupil-teacher ratio can initially be
a means for keeping costs low while expanding enrolment. However,
high pupil-teacher ratios combined with inadequate instructional
equipment and low teacher motivation cannot contribute to learning. |
| |
| Fig. 2.20:
Pupil-teacher ratios in primary education, 1990-1997 |
|
|
|
| Source:
UNESCO World Education Report 2000 |
| |
|
If a cut-off point of 40:1 is taken as a reasonable ratio of
pupils per teacher in developing countries, then in Southern
Asia, Afghanistan and India stand out (among the countries for
which data are available), having an estimated ratio of 58 and
47 students per teacher respectively, in 1997, and in Bangladesh
and Pakistan the estimated ratios were of 63 and 43 students
per teacher, respectively, in 1990. |
| |
|
In Sub-Saharan Africa there are large variations, ranging in
1997 from ratios lower than 30 students per teacher in countries
such as Botswana, Cape Verde, Ghana and Mauritania, up to ratios
of more than 50 students per teacher in countries such as Benin,
Central African Republic (77:1 in 1990), Chad (67:1), Congo
(70:1), Gabon, Malawi, Mali (70:1), Mozambique and Senegal.
In some of these countries the situation deteriorated after
Jomtien, for example in Benin, where the estimated pupil-teacher
ratio grew from 36 to 56 between 1990 and 1997, and in Mali
where the pupil-teacher ratio went from 47 to 71 during the
same period. In other countries, conversely, the pupil-teacher
ratio reduced significantly after Jomtien for example in Burundi,
where it decreased from 67 to 50 students per teacher between
1990 and 1997, and in Togo, where it went from 58 to 46. |
| |
|
|
In some of the countries with high pupil-teacher ratios, these
are associated with the presence of double or even triple shifts
of pupils during the day in the same school premises and with
the same teacher. Although this may shorten the "school day"
of pupils and increase the burden of teachers, double shifts
have been used in some countries, such as Republic of Korea,
Malaysia and Zimbabwe, to reduce costs by fully exploiting existing
facilities and human resources. This allowed not only to reduce
costs of school facilities and equipment but having the same
teacher teaching double-shifts allowed also to reduce the costs
of housing and training teachers. Moreover, if teachers were
paid a lower hourly rate for teaching two sessions, although
their total earnings would be higher, this would result in additional
savings. |
| |
|
Finally, in most of the less developed regions, the problem
of pupil-teacher ratio and class size compounds with that of
dropout. High ratios of pupils to teachers can be considered
as one of the factors determining high rates of dropout. This
demonstrates the inextricable relationship between enrolment
levels and quality, so that where the quality of the provision
deteriorates, enrolment levels tend to decline. Conversely,
a decline in pupil-teacher ratios is an indicator of improving
quality, provided it is accompanied by increasing or stable
enrolment ratios and low rates of repetition and dropout. |
| |
|
| Many
countries have undertaken initiatives aimed at responding to
the shortage of qualified teachers. |
| |
|
|
To respond to these issues, several countries in all regions
reported to be working in order to improve teacher training
and many of them (such as for example Malawi, Sudan and the
Syrian Republic) have undertaken initiatives of teacher training
targeted at improving the quality of teaching practices especially
in the rural areas. In South Asia, the Northern Areas Education
Project in Pakistan undertook the training of more than 700
teachers, while in Bangladesh, the Intensive District Approach
to Education for All educates teachers about children's individual
learning patterns. Guinea has sought to improve teaching in
rural areas through the redeployment of skilled teachers from
urban areas. Other countries are working to upgrade teacher
performances by raising entry requirements to the profession
(for example Egypt and Libyan Arab Jamarihiya), and providing
incentives to attract and retain teachers, as most countries
in Latin America and the Caribbean. |
| |
|
| The
right balance must be found between containing teachers' costs
and ensuring quality. |
| |
|
|
Lowering pupil-teacher ratios against the pressure of population
growth is one of the problems with which developing countries
have to cope in pursuing education for all, finding a trade-off
between the need to contain costs and that of ensuring quality
(Farrel & Oliveira, 1993). On the one hand, in fact, teacher
costs constitute up to 90 per cent of the public costs of primary
education in most developing countries (Mehrota & Buckland,
1998), so that the expansion of the teaching body required to
enrol all primary age school children taking into account current
rates of population growth, would represent an unaffordable
burden for many countries unless the average teacher cost per
pupil is reduced. On the other hand, the measures adopted to
manage costs of teaching personnel should not lead to sacrificing
the quality of instruction. |
| |
|
|
The experience of Zimbabwe during the 1980s provides an example
of how to expand the number of teachers, which grew from about
19,000 in 1980 to 54,000 in 1983 and about 66,000 in 1990, maintaining
quality while containing costs. The supply of teachers was first
increased along with the expansion in enrolment, which went
from 800,000 in 1980 to more than 2 million in 1982, by employing
untrained teachers especially at the primary level. Then an
accelerated teacher-training programme of four years was introduced,
the Zimbabwe's Integrated Teacher Education Course, which comprised
two terms in college, one at the beginning and the other at
the end, while the remaining time was spent teaching in the
schools. This approach lowered to less than half the cost of
training, compared to conventional approaches, while providing
timely training experience to the newly recruited teachers (Chung,
1993). |
| |
|
Expenditure on education can be used as an indicator to assess
the implementation of EFA targets and progress in education
although it should be recognised that improvements in the scope
and quality of education can also be achieved through a more
effective and efficient investment of existing resources. Investment
in education depends on the one hand on the total resources
available in a country, including the relative size of the economically
active adult population and, on the other hand, the importance
governments and private entities attribute to education, in
comparison with other public priorities. |
| |
|
| In the
less developed regions the relative size of the population contributing
to national income is almost half that in the more developed
ones, but the demographic transition will open a window of opportunities
in the next decades. |
| |
|
|
The relative size of the working-age population that can contribute
to national income, which depends on the rate of population
growth and the age-structure of a population, represents an
important factor in the capacity of nations to mobilise resources,
including for education. The following table presents dependency
ratios, that is the number of persons aged under 15 and over
64 per 100 persons of labour force age (aged 15-64 years); these
are used as approximate indicators of the relative sizes of
the non-working-age and working-age populations and indicate
the dependency burden on workers. |
| |
|
| Table 2.1
Estimated and projected age-dependency ratios, 1998-2050 |
|
(not
available)
|
| Source:
World Population Monitoring, 1999. |
| |
|
The estimated youth dependency ratio (the number of 0-14 year
olds per 100 persons of labour force age, aged 15-64 years)
in the less developed regions is about twice that of the more
developed regions, making it much more difficult for these countries
to generate needed resources. However, the distance between
more and less developed regions decreases when total dependency
ratios are considered, since more developed regions have a higher
percentage of people aged 65 or over than less developed ones.
According to the medium-variant United Nations projections,
total dependency ratios will further decrease in the first quarter
of the 21st century in the less developed regions, whereas they
will increase in the more developed ones. |
| |
|
|
If the dependency ratios are currently very high in the less
developed regions, the demographic transition should lead to
a progressive decrease of the number of children per 100 workers,
whereas, at the same time the proportion of the older population
will remain lower than in the more developed regions, making
it progressively easier to find the needed resources to expand
education. |
| |
| Since
Jomtien developing countries invested a higher share of their
GNP in education. |
| |
|
|
The renewed attention to education has mobilised additional
resources in many countries. The following comparisons are based
on public investment in education, as for the majority of countries
data on private spending are not available. |
| |
|
| Table 2.2
Estimated public expenditure on education (all levels), 1990-1997 |
|
(not
available)
|
| Source:
UNESCO World Education Report 2000 |
| |
|
Between 1990 and 1997, all developing regions except Southern
Asia and to a lesser extent Eastern Asia and Oceania invested
a higher share of a generally growing gross national product
in education. This indicates that the priority of education
in national policy development has grown. However, the least
developed countries fell further behind during this period,
devoting, as a group, only 2 per cent of GNP to all levels of
education in 1997. |
| |
|
The following chart examines both the absolute change of expenditure
on education between 1990 and 1997 and the change of that expenditure
relative to the increase in national income. |
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| Fig. 2.21:
Change in expenditure on education in US $ and as % of GNP between
1990 and 1997 (1990=100) |
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|
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| Source:
Calculated from UNESCO World Education Report 2000 |
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When comparing such figures, the demographic context needs to
be taken into account. Quite obviously, a share of 3 per cent
of GNP for educational expenditure in a country with a relatively
small school age population can translate into higher expenditure
per student than a share of 5 per cent in a country where the
population is young and the demand for education high. How national
investment in education translates into spending per student
depends, of course, also on changes in enrolment patterns. The
next chart therefore examines changes in primary enrolments
jointly with changes in expenditure per student in relation
to GNP per capita. However since the number of countries included
in each region is not exhaustive, these trends should be used
with caution. |
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| Fig. 2.22:
Change in expenditure per pupil as % of GNP per capita and total
enrolment between 1990 and 1997, (1990=100) |
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|
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| Source:
Calculated from UNESCO World Education Report 2000 |
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| In some
regions the expenditure per student as percentage of GNP increased
despite the expansion in enrolment, while in other regions a
trade-off was made to enrol more students at a lower cost. |
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Enrolment increased in all regions, while expenditures did not
always grow at a comparable rate. In fact, the public current
expenditure per pupil as a percentage of GNP per capita decreased
in Sub-Saharan Africa, where in 1997 each pupil was allocated
a share of the GNP per capita that was about 30 percentage points
lower than seven years before. It should be remembered that
over 30 heavily indebted countries are in this region and that
governments spend about as much on debt repayment as on health
and basic education combined (UNICEF, 1999). Public expenditure
on education per pupil as percentage of GNP per capita decreased
also in Southern Asia between 1990 and 1997, by 14 percentage
points. Thus, in Southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa it seems
that a trade-off has been made after Jomtien to enrol more students
at a lower cost. Conversely, in Latin America and even more
so in Eastern Asia and Oceania, despite the expansion of enrolled
school age population, the expenditure per student as percentage
of GNP has also increased. In Eastern Asia attempts have been
made to find new funding sources. China, Indonesia and Thailand,
for examples, tried various schemes to introduce local taxes
or debt relief for education and to set up school enterprises. |
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A UNICEF study analysed ten countries (Botswana, Mauritius and
Zimbabwe from Sub-Saharan Africa, Barbados, Cuba and Costa Rica
from Latin America and the Caribbean, Republic of Korea and
Malaysia from Eastern Asia and Sri Lanka and the Indian state
of Kerala from Southern Asia) that universalised primary schooling
early in their development process and then significantly increased
secondary enrolments, with the aim to identify common elements
and lessons in their education policies (Mehrotra, 1998). The
study found several commonalities in spending patterns. First,
in all of these "high achieving" countries public expenditure
on education represented a high share both of their GDP and
their total public expenditure, relative to the regional average.
Second, they exhibited a higher expenditure per pupil as a percentage
of GNP per capita in primary education and a lower one in higher
education than other countries in the region with similar income
levels. Third, they adopted several measures to keep unit cost
low and internal efficiency relatively high, maintaining minimum
standards of quality while expanding access. Fourth, they reduced
the costs supported by parents, by making primary education
free of tuition (except in Republic of Korea), and in some cases
reducing progressively indirect costs as well. Finally, in these
countries the state assumed a major role as provider of basic
social services, allowing a health transition to occur early
in their development process. |
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Conversely, education and specifically economic policies in
several countries in the less developed regions do not reflect
the priority that was explicitly accorded to basic education
at Jomtien. In some cases expenditures favour higher levels
of education with the result that those who benefit from it
are the better-off who are able to complete primary education
and then continue on to secondary and even higher education.
As the former director of the UNDP's Human Development Report,
Mahbub ul Haq, stated at the 1993 Education for All Summit of
the Nine High Population Countries, the cost of each jet fighter
equals that of one million children in primary school, making
it evident that achieving Jomtien goals is now also a matter
of priorities. |
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