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| 3. A
closer look at half of the world population |
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While it is useful to examine global trends at the level of
world regions, policies are largely established at the national
and sub-national level and cross-national aggregates can mask
important variation between countries within a region. It is
therefore also important to examine the development at the national
level. This section examines the relationship between demographic
patterns, trends in enrolment and investment in education focusing
on the E-9 countries that, together, comprise more than half
of the world population. The analysis is based on the 1999 provisional
estimates and projections of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics,
which in turn are based on the population estimates and projections
of the United Nations and on the enrolment figures provided
from the countries to UNESCO. Questions that are addressed include:
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| How
have the E-9 countries progressed towards universal primary
education, i.e. increased enrolments and enrolment ratios, reducing
the out-of-school population and increased investment in education?
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| What
will be needed to fill the gap to achieve universal basic education
until 2010 in terms of additional enrolments at the primary
school age group level? |
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Of course, estimates of future enrolment ratios represent only
a restricted vision of the future since they rest on the assumption
that current rates of progress will prevail and do not account
for the impact of intervening variables. Moreover, because of
the weakness of much of the underlying data the scenarios depicted
in the following pages indicate broad trends and should be used
with caution.. |
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In all E-9 countries the number of children of primary school
age enrolled in school rose between 1990 and 1997. However countries
varied in the amount of progress that was achieved. |
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| Fig. 3.1:
Change in number of children of primary school age in the population
and enrolled between 1990 and 1997 (1990=100) |
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| Source:
Calculated from 1999 provisional estimates of the UNESCO Institute
for Statistics. |
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| In all
countries examined the expansion of enrolment outpaced demographic
growth |
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In all countries, the change in enrolments of children at the
age of primary school between 1990 and 1997 exceeded the corresponding
change in the number of children of primary school age in the
population, thus indicating that educational progress outpaced
demographic growth. |
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| Some countries
achieved or are close to achieving universal primary education.
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Using the 1999 provisional estimates and projections of the
UNESCO Institute for Statistics, the following charts present
the changes in the number of primary school age children, the
number of primary school age children enrolled and the number
of out-of-school children by country, thus showing the extent
to which universal primary education was or – according to the
projections based on current trends – will be achieved between
1980 and 2010. |
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| Fig. 3.2-3.10:
Estimated number of children of primary school age in the population,
enrolled and out-of-school, 1980-2010. |
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In China, the sharp decline of the primary school age population,
which decreased by more than 30 million in just 10 years – together
with a national effort to achieve universal primary education
and enhance quality in that decade – meant every child was provided
with a place in school by 1990. Between 1990 and 2000, primary
school age enrolments followed the curve of the primary school
age population, which rose by about 10 million children during
this period, while it is projected to decrease by more than
15 million between 2000 and 2010, thus making it easier to ensure
quality primary education for all children of primary school
age. |
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Also in Indonesia, the growth in primary school age enrolments
outpaced the growth of the primary school age population between
1980 and 1990. Although the right to education was affirmed
in the Constitution of 1945, due to the lack of resources it
was only in 1984 that compulsory education could be enforced.
Practically all of the children of primary school age had the
opportunity to participate in education during the 1980s and
the aim is now to ensure a minimum of 9 years of schooling for
all school age children. Challenges to be met against the constraints
posed by the recent financial crisis include improving learning
conditions and achievement and reducing dropouts. |
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In Brazil, 1990 marked the turning point in the growth of their
primary school age population. The decrease in the number of
children, coupled with a policy aimed at increasing enrolment
ratios in primary school, was expected to result in the achievement
of universal primary education by the year 2000. The persisting
demographic decline at the beginning of the new century should
leave room to invest resources on addressing the problems of
drop-out and repetition, eliminating disparities in educational
opportunities, enhancing quality and expanding access at higher
levels of education. |
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In Mexico, universal primary education was already achieved
by 1980, so that a moderate expansion of the number of children
of primary school age should easily be covered by a corresponding
expansion of enrolment. In the context of a general educational
reform, the education’s budget rose by 86 per cent in real terms,
between 1988 and 1993, leading, among other things to an increase
in teachers’ salaries; a teacher re-training programme was implemented
and a special programme to combat underachievement in basic
education has been launched to improve education in poor areas.
The year 2000 is expected to mark an inversion in the demographic
trend of school population, allowing even more room for investing
in educational quality and the reduction of disparities. |
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In Egypt, the growth in the number of enrolments outpaced the
growth in the number of children of primary school age during
the 1980s and 1990s and the number of children out-of-school
declined by more than 80 per cent between 1980 and 2000. Problems
to overcome included the shortage of school buildings and of
classrooms equipment and supplies. The expansion of the primary
school age population is expected to stop in 2000, which would
facilitate the achievement of universal primary education during
the first decade of the 21st century, along with current efforts
to reform curricula, train teachers and eliminate the remaining
gender disparities. |
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| In other
countries the expansion of primary enrolment was partially offset
by the growth of the youth population. |
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In India, the National Policy on Education, adopted in 1986
and up-dated in 1992 gave highest priority to primary education,
together with adult literacy programmes. As a consequence, primary
enrolment rose but so did the primary school age population,
(which increased until 2000 when it is estimated to stabilize),
thus leading to only a slight decrease of the out-of-school
population. The time that will be needed to achieve universal
primary education will therefore largely depend on the efforts
undertaken in the next decade to expand enrolments and reduce
the out-of-school child population. Based on current trends,
it is estimated that the number of enrolled children of primary
school age will not change significantly during the first decade
of the 21st century, with the result that 20 million children
could still be out-of-school in the year 2010. |
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In Pakistan, as in India, rapid population growth has posed
a challenge to achieving universal primary education, which
has offset the expansion of primary school age enrolments. In
1990 the number of enrolled children began to include the out-of-school
children. The number of out-of-school children decreased steadily
during the 1990s, while enrolments underwent a remarkable growth
in this post-Jomtien decade. The National Education Policy issued
in 1992 by the government, in fact, included the goals to universalise
primary education by 2002 and improve quality by raising standards
and status of teachers. However, unlike in India, it is expected
that the primary school age population will continue to expand
in the first decade of the 21st century, so that additional
resources would serve mainly to keep abreast of population growth
and the process of educational recovery would continue but at
a slow pace. |
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| In
Bangladesh, some progress was made during the 1990s in increasing
primary school age enrolment ratios, after primary education
was made compulsory in 1993. Policy measures aimed at expanding
enrolment during the 1990s included the construction of new
classrooms and a more effective exploitation of existing structures.
The decline in the number of out-of-school children during the
decade following Jomtien, however, seems to have been mainly
due to the decline of the size of primary school age cohorts
rather than to the creation of additional places in school.
Based on the 1999 UNESCO projections, the number of primary
school age enrolled children is expected to increase by 3 million
between 2000 and 2010, while the number of out-of-school children
is expected to decrease by just 1 million during the same period,
due to a new expansion of the cohorts primary school age children.
Thus, Bangladesh, as Pakistan, experiences difficulties in achieving
universal primary education due to the growing number of children.
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In Nigeria, population projections estimate that by 2010 there
will be twice as many children of primary school age than in
1980, as there are no signs of a decline in demographic growth.
Student demography thus seems to offset the considerable efforts
made to increase the number of enrolled children, which are
particularly evident after 1990. Without an inversion of this
demographic trend it looks like it will take many more years
to find a place in school for the 20 per cent of the children
of primary school age that are currently excluded from school.
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In sum, three main patterns emerge from the analysis of the
estimated and projected primary school age population and enrolment
trends between 1980 and 2010 in the E-9 countries. In China,
Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico and Egypt, the decline of the primary
school age population seems to be accompanied by an increase
of enrolments resulting in the achievement of universal primary
education most likely at the latest by 2010 (or shortly after
for Egypt). In such countries the challenge is thus now to improve
learning conditions and achievement, increase the internal efficiency
of education systems, reduce school disparities in educational
outcomes, and expand participation in education beyond primary
school. In India, the decrease of the primary school age population
expected for the period 2000–2010 is not predicted to be coupled
any longer with an increase in primary enrolments so that the
achievement of universal primary education looks still some
way ahead, at some point after 2010. Finally, in Pakistan, Bangladesh
and Nigeria, the expansion of primary school age enrolments
seems to be partially offset by the persisting increase of primary
school age cohorts. |
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The evidence presented thus far demonstrates that, in many countries,
there has been significant educational progress since Jomtien.
Some of the developing countries have met the target of universal
primary education or come close to it, often in the context
of favourable population dynamics. However, other countries
still lag well behind the target. |
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| Comparing
current enrolment ratios against the projected school age population
gives a rough estimate of the expansion required to reach UPE
in the next decade |
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By comparing current enrolment ratios against the projected
school age population, an estimate can be obtained of the expansion
in enrolment that would be required in the next decade in order
to achieve or approach universal primary education in those
of the E-9 countries that have not yet reached this target in
the year 2000. These countries are India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Nigeria and Egypt. |
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Four benchmarks have been used, in order to quantify the work
needed to meet the EFA target in terms of additional enrolled
students: |
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An "ideal
scenario" of universal enrolment for children of primary
school age by 2010;
A scenario
that depicts how much enrolment should grow if 90 per cent
of the primary school age population is to be enrolled by
2010;
An "average
scenario" that reflects a more modest strategy aimed at
reaching the 2000 average level, using the 2000 average
net enrolment ratios in the less developed regions (84.8
per cent) as the level of comparison;
A "current
practice scenario" that depicts the growth in enrolment
based on current enrolment trends.
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These scenarios should not be considered as alternative estimates
of future enrolment ratios in the examined countries, but rather
as an attempt to quantify the efforts that are required in these
countries in order to achieve different rates of primary school
age enrolment at the end of the next decade. |
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The numbers obtained by comparing current net enrolment figures
against the projection of the official school age population
represent a simplification of the reality. In fact, these figures
do not take into account the under-aged and especially the over-aged
enrolled pupils (repeaters and late entrants), representing
in some countries up to 30 per cent of total enrolment. This
means that the actual current total enrolment is much larger
than the primary school age enrolment. The total enrolment in
2010 will also be larger than the primary school age one. However,
by comparing primary school age enrolment against the primary
school age population, this extra-part of the enrolled population
is excluded from both estimates and it is possible to obtain
a more reliable picture of the required expansion in enrolment
capacity at the country level. |
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The next chart (Figure 3.11) presents the percentage growth
required under each of these four scenarios in the E-9 countries
that have not yet attained universal primary education. |
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| Source:
Calculated from the 1999 provisional estimates and projections
of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics. |
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| Pakistan,
Nigeria and Bangladesh have to increase their enrolment by 32,
26 and 25 per cent respectively, in order to reach, by 2010,
the current average net enrolment ratio in the less developed
regions. |
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For each country, the bottom part of the bar illustrates the
"average scenario", that is, the percentage change (2000=100)
that is required to reach by 2010, the 2000 average net enrolment
ratio in the less developed regions taken together (84.8 per
cent). Based on the provisional 1999 estimates and projections
of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Pakistan, Nigeria and
Bangladesh will be required to increase their enrolment by 32
per cent, 26 per cent and 25 per cent respectively, if they
are to reach, by 2010, the 2000 average net enrolment ratio
in the less developed regions. These percentage increases correspond
to enrolling five million more children of primary school age
in Pakistan, some 3.8 million more in Nigeria and 2.7 million
more in Bangladesh. India will need to enrol more than two million
more children, while in Egypt the net enrolment ratio is already
currently higher than the 2000 less developed regions average.
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The line shows what percentage change is needed in each country
in order to maintain its estimated current rate of progress,
based on the provisional projections of the UNESCO Institute
for Statistics. Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh would have
to increase their primary school age enrolments by more than
25 per cent, compared to their level in 2000, whereas in Egypt,
based on current enrolment and population trends, the primary
school age enrolment ratio in 2010 is expected to exceed the
90 per cent benchmark. |
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| In order
to enrol 90 per cent of the primary school age population by
2010, India has to expand its current enrolment by about 9 per
cent, while Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh have to increase
enrolment by between 33 and 40 per cent. |
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The "90 per cent scenario" is represented by the middle part
of the bars. In order to meet this target by 2010, India is
required to increase its enrolment by about 9 per cent, enrolling
some 8 million more children of primary school age. Pakistan,
Nigeria and Bangladesh will be required to expand their enrolment
capacity by about 8 per cent more than the average scenario
would imply, that is a percentage increase between 33 and 40
per cent with respect to the level reached in 2000. According
to this scenario, Bangladesh would have to enrol more than 3.5
million additional children of primary school age in school
between 2000 and 2010, Nigeria almost five million and Pakistan
more than six million. |
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Finally, the "ideal universal enrolment scenario" represented
by the top part of the bars implies a growth in enrolment ratios
that ranges from 5 per cent in Egypt to 55 per cent in Pakistan.
The percentage increases required to achieve universal primary
education would correspond to enrolling about half a million
more children of primary school age than in 2000 in Egypt, 5
million more in Bangladesh, 7 million more in Nigeria, almost
9 million more in Pakistan and 19 million more in India. Based
on these figures, the universal enrolment scenario seems to
be difficult to reach for these countries by 2010, unless major
efforts are made and additional resources are mobilised to increase
the rate of educational progress. |
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| The
situation of the E-9 countries reflects that in other developing
countries. |
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The situation of the E-9 countries reflects that in other developing
countries. The 1999 provisional projections of the UNESCO Institute
for Statistics indicate that, in 2000, 32 of the 107 developing
countries for which estimates were available are expected to
have achieved net enrolment ratios of more than 95 per cent,
another 28 between 80 and 95 per cent, while 47 countries were
below the 80 per cent mark, with 15 countries (all but two in
Sub-Saharan Africa) having less than half of the official age
population enrolled in school. The projections for 2010 show
an improvement, with one third of the countries falling into
each group, but 36 countries are still expected to have less
than 80 per cent of children of primary school age enrolled
and 11 of these countries less than 50 per cent. |
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| Huge
efforts remain to be faced by some countries to expand enrolment,
while other countries can now focus exclusively on enhancing
quality. |
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The countries that have achieved or have nearly achieved universal
enrolment can now concentrate on the quality and relevance of
education. Those that have between 20 and 5 per cent out-of-school
children should aim at closing the gap as soon as possible.
The countries that have net enrolment ratios of below 80 per
cent need to invest massive national resources, together with
international support from donors and NGOs. In these countries,
where a continuous growth of the school age population does
not facilitate the task of expanding enrolment and providing
all of the children with basic education at the prescribed age,
a marked increase in enrolment ratios could be one of the driving
forces contributing to the onset of a demographic transition.
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