| Management of social transformations means management
of transformation risks first of all. The profound
changes of Central and Eastern European societies are the
current most relevant field to study and manage social
risks. Thus the decision of the MOST Steering Committee
to launch a research project on Personal and
Institutional Strategies for Coping with Transformation
Risks in Central and Eastern Europe fully corresponds
to the goals of the MOST Programme. The work on the project started in June 1997 at the first meeting of the international team. It includes leading social scientists from Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Poland and Russia. The team used the launching of the annual Human Development Report. Bulgaria 1997 in Sofia in order to specify and select problems and approaches for its own research. An agreement was reached to focus the major part of the project on the social risks of unemployment. Its structural causes and cultural reasons as well as its economic, political and cultural effects are to be studied at macro- meso and microsocial levels. Special attention should be paid to the most destructive phenomenon of long-term unemployment. The coordinator took the obligation to elaborate on this specifications. This was done by using data from a pilot study on risk perception, risk assessment and risk management in the course of the transformation. Some preliminary conclusions were reported on the Internet home page of the project http://www.datacom.bg/most.risk/nbgen/. The crucial question to be dealt with was defined as follows: What are the current and the promising strategies for management of unemployment risks in the region of Central and Eastern Europe? The discussions during the second meeting of the international team in February 1998 were focused on the search for detailed answers to this question. Following the guiding ideas of the MOST Programme, the organizers opened their discussion to the public. The Conference Central and Eastern Europe: Assessment and Management of Transformation Risks was attended by 57 participants from the countries taking part in the project as well as from the Netherlands and from the FYR of Macedonia. The national relevance of the Conference was strengthened by the participation of the Minister of Labour and Social Policy Mr. Ivan Neykov who delivered a keynote speech on the policies for dealing with unemployment in Bulgaria. The international relevance of the Conference was recognized by the participation of Mr. Paul de Guchteneire from the UNESCO-MOST Secretariat, the Resident Representative of UNDP Mr. Antonio Vigilante, the head of the Regional Bureau of the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation Mr. Marc Meinardus and the Secretary General of the Bulgarian National Commission for UNESCO Mr. Hristo Georgiev. In the official addresses to the Conference the importance of the topics of risks and unemployment and the need to strengthen the practical relevance of the MOST related projects were underlined. The scientific programme of the Conference was divided into two parts. Three sessions were dedicated to conceptualizations of the transformation process and to elaborations on the national experience. The following three sessions were focused on detailed analyses of unemployment as a social risk. In the introductory paper Challenges of Continuing Transformation the project coordinator Nikolai Genov (Sofia) elaborated on three major points. First, the accomplished institutionalization of political and economic changes notwithstanding, many social structures in the region of Central and Eastern Europe are still in a state of flux. The key issue is competitiveness which has technological, economic, political and cultural dimensions. Second, the continuing transformation is marked by uncertainties and risks. In analytical terms, their management includes identification and assessment of risks, search for their causes and reasons, reactions and evaluation of reactions to risks. Third, unemployment is clearly one of the major risks the Central and Eastern European societies have to cope with. The prospects for integration of these societies in international structures is not the solution of the problem of unemployment but part of the problem itself. A series of papers introduced general concepts as well as issues and approaches related to the national specifics of the ongoing transformations. Michael Thomas (Berlin) elaborated on some unexpected and undesirable consequences of the transformation of East Germany. Pal Tamas (Budapest) presented a broad view on new social divisions of winners and losers in Hungarian society. Zhivko Nedev (Sofia) focused his paper on the impact of the transformation on the human capital development. Taking the Latvian development as an example, Aivars Tabuns (Riga) critically approached problems of social integration and disintegration in the successor states of the former Soviet Union. Mirjana Maleska (Skopje) pointed out at the role of the international context in shaping constellations of risk in small societies undergoing transformation. Dimitrina Dimitrova (Sofia) discussed the profound changes in the organization of work due to the introduction of market forces. The discussion focused on specifications of the concepts of transformation and risk with a view to various structures and processes. Among them, causes and effects of unemployment received special attention. The related issues became the focus of the discussion during the second part of the Conference. Oleg Chulev (Sofia) analyzed trends in the Bulgarian labour market. Karl-Dieter Opp (Leipzig) presented results of sophisticated studies on the potential for political protest due to unemployment in East Germany. Elena Mezenceva (Moscow) discussed problems of social marginalization of unemployed in Russia. Hristo Domozetov (Sofia) focused his presentation on the personal strategies of former military officers for coping with the risks of unemployment. Lidija Hristova (Skopje) elaborated on the structural causes for the extremely high unemployment in the FYR of Macedonia. Nico Pijnacker Hordijk (Leiden) shared his experience in institutional innovations for job recruitment. Other papers dealt with issues of unemployment and poverty, communication problems of the unemployed, the relationship between unemployment and crime, etc. The major conclusion of the discussion was that the multidimensionality of the phenomenon of unemployment makes it especially suitable for a well designed and implemented interdisciplinary, cross-national and policy oriented empirical study. Various problems of theory, methodology, organization, funding, etc. of the research project were subject to detailed discussions. Their outcome is the commonly shared view that the prospects for implementing a high quality study on transformation risks in Central and Eastern Europe are very promising. The stumbling block in the way of the project is and remains funding as it is the case with many other projects in the field of social sciences. ProgrammeFriday, 6 February 9:30 - 11:00 Opening Session: Introductory speeches
Discussion 11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break 11:00 - 13:00 Session Two
Discussion 13:00 - 14:30 Lunch Break 14:30-16:00 Session Three
Discussion 16:00 - 16:30 Coffee Break 16:30 - 18:00 Session Four
Discussion 18:30 Cocktail Saturday, 7. February 9:30-11:00 Session Five
Discussion 11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break 11:30-13:00 Session Six
Discussion
Left to right: Paul de Guchteneire (UNESCO-MOST), Nikolai Genov (MOST Project leader), Ivan Neykov (Minister of Labour and Social Policy, Bulgaria), Mark Meinardus (Head of the Regional Bureau of the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation) and Antonio Vigilante (Resident Representative of UNDP). For more information, please contact:
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