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1. Significant changes in the world …………………...… 8
2. Unesco’s reaction ………………………….…………. 11
3. Possible futures ………………………..…..…...….…... 14

Some major trends …………………………....…... 14

Three possible scenarios ……………..…….…...… 18

4. A scenario for Unesco ……………….…..……..…….. 22

More than fifty years after its founding, Unesco – as all the organisations in the United Nations system – faces a world profoundly different from the one that witnessed its birth. Numerous problems endure, but the technical, economic, social and political changes that have transpired since 1946 are fraught with major consequences for the future of the human race. These are expected to weigh heavily on the role and activities of Unesco in the coming decades.

Most of the major changes that have occurred in recent decades were in fact interlinked within what today constitutes the "world system," where the most diversified and dispersed events are part of the total dynamics. It would be useless to try to specify their causes and effects or to try to establish a hierarchy of their importance. Let it suffice to enumerate pell-mell the following changes that may be considered, admittedly in a subjective way, to be the most significant.

(i) Population growth, principally in the developing countries, whereby the world's population grew from 2.5 billion individuals to 6 billion within fifty years. Life expectancy rose from an average of 46 to 65 years.

(ii) Decolonisation (including that of the former Soviet empire), accompanied by an awakening of nationalism. This led to a rise in the number of Member States from 50 to nearly 200, all very unequally weighted – compromising thereby the original functioning of the United Nations on the basis of "one country, one vote," while seriously raising the problem of public aid for development.

(iii) The failure of the ideology of centralised planning, opening the way to a growing domination of market forces. This has caused a relative impotence of States confronted by a multiplication of international institutions and economic and social actors (transnational firms, local and regional authorities, non-governmental organisations, mass media, and so forth). This leaves the impression, clearly excessive, that there is but one economic way to organise the world.

(iv) The globalisation of information and communication, truly a mutation of civilisation. This leads to an opening-up of cultures together with an inexorable rise in material expectations, producing tensions if they cannot be satisfied.

(v) The parallel immediacy of expanding financial markets, true driving forces of economic globalisation, accompanied by "virtual" capital flows generating instability and inequalities.

(vi) The intensified movement of goods and materials as well as of people by air or car, contributing to a uniformisation of ways of life.

(vii)  Instantaneous transmission by the media of events independently of their real importance to a public captive of publicity, propaganda, and headlines. This incites feelings of dissatisfaction and anxiety that can sway people to democracy as well as to demagogy or authoritarian systems.

(viii)  Intensification of the economic and social gap, between the industrialised countries of the "North" and the developing nations of the "South", all the more apparent since the end of the East-West conflict. To this is added a growing break within all nations, stemming essentially from the above mentioned changes, between rich and poor people.

(ix)  The convergence of major technological breakthroughs, based first on progress made in physics (nuclear energy, transistors, lasers, space exploration, computers, numeration) and then in biology (antibiotics, hormones, oral contraceptives, microbiology, genetic engineering). Their social, environmental and ethical fall-out is serious, uncertain, unanticipated and sometimes alarming.

(x)  As concerns the environment and natural resources, the emergence of complex and sometimes surprising problems affecting the planet as a whole or in part and requiring cooperative management – possibly orchestrated by global or regional agreements – in fields such as climatic change, protection of the ozone layer, mastering energy, water supply, waste elimination, the different forms of pollution, food contamination, protecting biological diversity, desertification, and the like.

(xi)  The rapid "artificialisation" of the land, with the degradation of ecosystems and landscapes, destruction of tropical forests, disappearance of traditional rural populations, massive migration to towns and cities, multiplication of large urban and littoral concentrations together with their concomitant social and environmental stress.

The combined effect of all these changes results in the profound transformation of human societies since the Second World War. Today there appear to be three major trends:

(i)  A desire for individual freedom, material comfort, control over fertility; for justice, democracy and peace. This leads to a general rise in demands in favour of human rights, minority rights, sexual equality, participation in decision-making, a re-examination of the nature of work, leisure and retirement, etc., a desire prevalent primarily in the industrialised nations but also (to the extent possible) in the developing countries.

(ii)  In contrast, a dissatisfaction on the part of large segments of the world's population who are left behind by the benefits of both the market and globalisation, dissatisfaction due to unemployment, poverty, inequality, insecurity and technological servitude; all this generates drop-out or flight behaviour (lack of culture, political apathy, commercialised sports, drugs, sects, violence, intolerance, fundamentalism, and so on), affecting especially youth and education.

(iii)  A growing awareness, although not yet a bold one, by the most wide-awake populations of the oneness and the limits of the "Blue planet," as well as of the commonality of the fate of the entire human species beyond its physical, economic and cultural diversity. This appears to be reflected, particularly in world conventions.

Contrary to what some of the founders of Unesco hoped, contrary too to what globalisation and the decline of certain ideologies might seem to announce, the political and cultural universe is not limited to the values and will of the Western world. Indeed, despite certain appearances, the world theatre has become more complex, more encumbered, more artificial and less predictable. The scene being played is dominated by the major technological developments that have upset the cultures and traditions of everyday life. Their perverse effects have been neither foreseen nor mastered, and their assimilation has not been confirmed in the minds of the immense majority of spectators. The actors themselves have multiplied, giving free rein to the forces reducing or destabilising the traditional roles of States – requiring a redefinition of the decision-making processes. The era of well developed intergovernmental cooperation among sovereign States existing at the birth of the United Nations must make room for the new arrivals (local and regional authorities, transnationals, NGOs, advocacy groups, foundations, and civil society as a whole), and to the new forms of intervention (Internet, telecommunications, cooperative networks, twinning arrangements, financial sponsors, and others). Now is the moment when the international cooperation on which Unesco was built must move towards a form of "world governance", the workings of which remain to be defined and set in motion to achieve a new coherence.

Faced with such a catalogue of change, some may think that the Constitution itself needs revision and modifications to bring the Organisation's missions up to date. But such a revision – which belongs properly within the framework of a recasting, albeit hypothetical, of the entire United Nations system – runs the risk of raising destabilising controversy and resulting in compromises of little advantage to Unesco. Such a revision would seem, furthermore, unnecessary. The Constitution has already proved that it offers no obstacles to change in the Organisation’s strategy and programmes, thanks to its broad vision of humanity's intellectual and moral solidarity and to the close link that it establishes between peace and development,.

A quick look at Unesco's activities since its founding reveals clearly, that in view of all the changes mentioned it has not remained motionless within the general framework of its very broad mandate. It would be interesting, as a matter of fact, to look at how Unesco's programmes have adapted themselves over the years in an effort to respond (even incidentally) to specific problems not explicitly foreseen at the outset.

There is agreement today, for example, that all of Unesco's activities in the field of the environment have played an innovative role, led to important results, and ensured exemplary international cooperation. These include the major intergovernmental scientific programmes such as the Man and the Biosphere Programme (MAB), the International Hydrological Programme (IHP), and the programmes of the Intergovernmental

Oceanographic Commission (IOC). Yet neither the terms environment nor natural resources appear in the Constitution, since the global importance of these questions was barely perceived when it was drafted.

By the same token the role assumed by the Organisation concerning issues in the broad field of communication – today exacerbated by the globalisation of information – led to placing this domain at the same structural level as those of education, science and culture in order to be able to react opportunely to the raising of the stakes, hopes and risks which go with it.

It would be useful, moreover, to try to assess to what extent Unesco achieved effective results in following the significant changes already mentioned, whether to accelerate their rhythm or (on the contrary) to mitigate their negative effects. Here, only a few specific examples can be given, demonstrating some of the pioneering contributions made by Unesco to recent changes in the world.

In the vast field of education, Unesco's promotion of the very concept of continuing education and vocational training responds directly to the need to accompany and follow through changes occurring in all countries, and in the minds of everyone, taking into account the rapid changes in knowledge and technology. Unesco’s campaigns supporting literacy and aid to the development of educational systems, as well as the mobilisation of financial means essential to education committed during the World conference at Jomtien (1990), derive from this concern to generalise access to education.

In science, one should note that as early as 1948 it was Unesco – together with France – that founded the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and did the groundwork for today's European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN). In 1968 it was Unesco who organised the Intergovernmental Conference on the Rational Use and Conservation of the Resources of the Biosphere, the first initiative towards formulating today's "sustainable development" concept. Unesco, too, favoured the development of national science policies, backed the establishment of scores of engineering schools and, in the domain of ethics urged the adoption in 1997 of the Universal Declaration on the Human Genome. It was Unesco who convened scientists, political personalities and governmental leaders in 1999 in Budapest to outline a new compact on "science and society."

In the shifting and sensitive field of culture, one recalls that the dialectic between the universal and the particular has constantly lain at the base of the Organisation’s action. Unesco is involved, at one and the same time, in the dynamic process of the globalisation of knowledge of cultural works and in the preservation of national cultural identity as well as of physical and non-physical national heritage. One can say that Unesco has thus contributed to restricting the uniformisation of culture (especially in its written and audiovisual forms), while enriching the sum of the world's culture through a better appreciation of its diversity. No one will overlook, in this respect, the major campaigns to safeguard monuments or the implementation of the Convention on the Protection of the World Natural and Cultural Heritage.

Less known perhaps is Unesco's continuing effort in the field of communication and information exchange. A preliminary concern here was an equitable distribution of knowledge and facilities in the area of information technology, expressed as early as the 1959 conference on information processing. This became an effort in effective cooperation within the framework of the International Programme for the Development of Communication, combined with the search for social significance, rigour, balance and ethics in message content.

Intensified links with NGOs, the struggle against racism and apartheid; emphasis on the cultural dimension of development; the decentralisation of action at the level of the Member State; aid to developing countries in the form of "operational activities"; global research programmes on arid regions, water resources, oceans, mineral resources and ecological systems; the establishment of biosphere reserves; numerous meetings and declarations on major societal problems. All these and a good many more could be further explained to show how this continuing interrelationship with world change, too little recognised, involved and was encouraged by Unesco.

At the beginning of a new century, it seems clear that the upsetting events characterising the past fifty years have yet to show their full impacts and full effect. The era of sweeping change affecting humanity and the planet is not over, inasmuch as such relative stability can ever come about.

At the same time other changes, other upsetting events may occur; it is hard to advance forecasts for the medium or long term concerning a world system whose complexity and instability we experience by the day. However, the system is characterised by a certain number of major trends, and these may be projected upon a not too distant horizon. In the field of prospective analysis, a number of tentative forecasts extend until the year 2025. This is therefore the time-span that is used here – neither too close so that change might be too small nor too remote so that sight be lost of what it means on the human scale. As to the major trends themselves, a fair number of these are no more than a continuation of the changes already noted, yet it is possible to try to evaluate their future consequences.

Population growth is the first of the major trends. Its inevitable mid-term continuation will, in the final analysis, carry the most weight in quantifying peoples’ needs and the impacts of these requirements on both the physical world and the economy. Since 1965 there has been a general decline in fertility in all countries. The fertility rate has fallen below the rate of population renewal in some sixty countries, including all industrialised countries, leading to population ageing. Yet, because of the inertia common to any demographic change, world population in 2025 will fall somewhere between 7.3 and 8.4 billions – with an especially marked rise in Africa where those under 15 years of age will number 40 per cent and in Asia where they will be 30 per cent of the population.

At the same time life expectancy will continue to rise, despite a persistence of malnutrition and diseases such as tuberculosis, malaria and AIDS among the less fortunate elements of the world's population. This increase in longevity, combined with massive applications of the information technologies in business and at home, will necessarily lead to questioning the traditional values concerning work and leisure (in the industrialised countries in particular), especially since some industrial sectors will continue to shift their activities to countries with lower labour costs, and since unemployment will not disappear.

Food, energy, water and raw-material requirements will quite naturally parallel an increase in population. If, according to FAO, it is expected that world food production will follow as it has – somehow or other – for the past fifty years, it is equally probable that distribution problems will here and there maintain recurrent stress, but that such difficulties will be overcome, more or less, by both public authorities and the NGOs; in large regions of Africa food stress will, however, continue to be chronic. Difficulties in closing the food gap, none the less, will result more from lack of information among the poorest rural population than from technical limitations.

As for energy, world consumption should at least double despite the control policies adopted (more or less willingly) to conform with the Convention on Climate Change by the industrialised nations which are the principal emitters of CO₂. This consumption will remain primarily based on fossil fuels with an increased use of natural gas. This is likely to raise slightly the planet's average temperature. Resort to new sources of energy, such as solar and wind, will continue to remain relatively weak, whereas the nuclear source – thanks to improved reactor processes – is likely to remain active.

In the case of water, one can estimate that at least a good thirty countries will encounter circumstantial difficulties followed by structural stress by the year 2025. Household and industrial needs will be met one way or the other, with an increasing accent on recycling, desalination, or the drilling of deep wells. Agricultural needs, on the other hand, will dictate radical changes in terms of irrigation in order to reduce the largely dominant proportion it represents of the total consumption – especially where or when water resources are minimal. These changes include renovation of irrigated areas in order to reduce water losses; the introduction of improved water-distribution techniques; the selection of new crop varieties; and the imposition of socially acceptable water charges.

When it comes to raw materials, the main ores will remain accessible. Concerning wood supply, an important diminution of tropical-forest areas is to be expected (despite conservation efforts and the replanting already under way), leading to severe reduction of their rich biological diversity. This will result from forest penetration by the extraction industries and the inappropriate cultivation of their fragile forest soils. The temperate forests will be less threatened but, on land as in the sea, the protection of species and ecosystems will remain disquieting.

Urbanisation will continue to develop considerably throughout the world. Until 2025, population growth among the poor, globalisation of agricultural trade, and the hope for a better life will lead to accelerated rural exodus in the developing countries and, everywhere, to the
"littoralisation" process – the expansion of settlements along coastlines. The average rate of urbanisation in developing countries would grow from some 15 per cent in 1950 to nearly 60 per cent by 2025. In the industrialised countries this rate would increase from 60 to 80 per cent. If the latter will continue to experience serious management problems in their major conglomerations and suburbs, it is worrisome to consider the enormous difficulties which can be foreseen in the megalopoles and shantytowns of developing countries. At the same time heavy pressure to migrate towards the industrialised countries can be expected, especially because of this massive urbanisation, the persistence of poverty, and ease of travel.

Technologically, it is clear that a marked growth of the information technologies can be anticipated which will, in turn, spur the globalisation and virtualisation of economic, social and cultural exchanges. These will open up immense new possibilities for contact and exchange while running the risk of dealing with distorted or chaotic information. Also to be anticipated are major upheavals in agriculture and medicine – as well as in civil and criminal law – resulting from the astonishing performance of genetic engineering. Tomorrow's society will in fact, have to rely on science and technology to remedy the problems that science and technology themselves have generated and that society did not know how to foresee.

Given this inexorable expansion of technology and the complexity of the globalisation process, one wonders if a lessening of the weight and role of the State might continue, and thus if such a reduction is not a major trend in itself. This question is evidently important for Unesco and for all intergovernmental organisations. Whatever might be the inadequacies, errors and weaknesses of nation-States, however, they will remain – and for a long time to come – "the only possible alternative to chaos." Such is the force of circumstances that, in the absence of any other credible system of collective security, public order and cultural framework, one can assume that the nation-State will maintain its specific position during the period under consideration in spite of the multiplication of the actors involved – even in those areas where States might regroup or decentralise into autonomous entities.

Be this as it may, a multiplication of the number of nation-States can be anticipated. A certain balkanisation now seems inevitable, encouraged by claims of cultural, religious or linguistic identity, by the "right of peoples to self-determination," and by the naïveté or the interests of external powers. The economic regrouping of States, which is favoured by globalisation, is not an obstacle to this trend; political sovereignty – occupying a seat at the United Nations – in its way acts as compensation for economic dependence. Thus an increase in the number of States, for the most part mini-States unable in practice to assume the responsibilities of sovereignty, will not fail to raise once again the question of balanced votes inherent in any re-organisation of world governance – as well as that of the increased pertinence of action at the regional level.

It is necessary to recall, furthermore, that it would be vain to expect that the gap between the standards of living in industrialised countries and in developing countries might be bridged in the near future. If the ideal of universal progress, based on education, science and reason and embodied in the Enlightenment's utopia remains alive, it faces the indifferent empire of technology, the limits of the planet's tolerance, and finally the characteristics of human nature in search of ever-growing advantages. This results in the inevitable persistence of large pockets of poverty, marginality and inequality that will continue to keep tensions high between countries as well as within them – even if there should be hope that interethnic violence or new forms of terrorism can be contained and world peace assured.

These major trends, none of which is to be underestimated regardless of suppositions about the future, along with whatever macroeconomic trends which might be identified, need to be taken into account in whatever depiction of the future one might imagine. Numerous studies of possible futures for the world are under way, generally based on the scenario approach. It is indeed possible to construct extremely diversified scenarios, as a function of coherent sets of assumptions concerning a number of variable factors. These lead along logical paths to "images" or "visions" of what the world of 2025 could be. In this respect, however, it is important to emphasise that such a prospective approach does not consist of making predictions but merely of throwing light on possible futures (including those seemingly the most desirable), making it possible in principle to influence better, as of now, the necessary behaviour and decision-making.

As one questions what the future might be, the mind's natural inclination is to extrapolate those changes that can be identified – tantamount to extending curves along the lines they seem to be following. Such is the trend scenario, one with no surprises. One may then imagine that things will tend to get better or, on the contrary, will worsen. Based on the current picture, that of a completely free-market, neo-liberal vision of the world system, two contrasting scenarios can be built: an optimistic liberal trend scenario, and a worse-trend scenario. These scenarios are to be found, with some variations, in the majority of current studies of the future.

The first scenario is clearly that advocated today by the world of business and a fair number of economists. It also seems to be that of the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation. It is based essentially on the predominance of the market and limits to the utmost regulatory powers of, and intervention by, the state in economic and financial affairs. It strongly encourages technological innovation (including genetic engineering) and, by drawing the major part of the world into a competitive dynamics of free trade, it assures strong growth. In population matters, it corresponds to the average projection of the United Nations: 7.8 billion people in 2025. It is founded on continued understanding among the three dominant economic poles that are the United States, the European Union and Japan – with the military and diplomatic preponderance of the first. This is a scenario favourable to globalisation in whatever form, leading to progressive uniformisation of behaviour, cultural products, language, modes of consumption, agricultural and industrial production methods, and one that assures the ubiquity of transnational firms and considerable power vested in the mass media.

This first scenario is characterised by a certain materialism, with the accent placed on the satisfaction of individual aspirations. It benefits from a particular legitimacy deriving from the failure of the planned economies and seems to lead, in both the short- and mid-term, to a world of prosperity and peace. Yet a number of countries and, more importantly, a number of social groups remain outside this prosperity, one founded on competition and the success of the strongest. The scenario does not foster a redistribution of wealth, tends to ignore the imperatives of equity and solidarity, and does not necessarily ensure objectivity in the dissemination of information. It does not give sufficient priority to education for all citizens, thus maintaining illiteracy and ignorance among the poorest. This social and cultural deficit removes, in part, the scenario from the ideal of human rights while freely proclaiming it. Besides, the predominance of private interests over public interests and of the short term over the long term, together with the artificial and continuing creation of material needs, leads to a waste of natural resources and to a certain negligence of the environment – the degradation of which is seen corrected a posteriori instead of a priori. This environmental deficit strays away, therefore, from the objective of sustainable development. So, at the world level, this leads to the displacement of the polluting industries to countries with weak social and environmental regulation and to the exclusion of social and environmental costs from economic accountancy. In this scenario, collective security continues to be seen as threatened, if only by the gaps in standards of living and the competition for natural resources. Armament costs remain high, thus reducing the potential for aid to development. This aid, wrongly targeted, tends to reinforce inequality in the countries which receive it. Finally, while being basically kept in place, the United Nations System is somewhat marginalised in such a scenario and remains under the sway of the immediate interest of one or another dominant power.

The second trend scenario, of the liberal market type but pessimistic, is in some ways the negative version of the first. It presupposes, in fact, the failure of the free-market model by an exacerbation of its inherent defects. It is a scare scenario – one that hardly needs to be explored in detail but which is unfortunately a possibility. It might come about by the prolonged leaving aside of large numbers of people from developing countries (and even from certain industrialised countries) by market forces out of control. The excess of a generalised free-trade ignorant of particular situations can also trigger serious tensions between countries including those involving agriculture, lead to destabilising economic wars or to conflicts concerning intellectual property. The concern for maintaining advantageous entitlements, especially for the countries of the North, leads to maintain or even increase military expenditures. The imposition of a virtual, universal cultural model favours an insistence upon identity capable of turning to violence, tribalism or racism. The absence of social equity at the national level and of solidarity at the international level, combined with an aggravation and multiplication of environmental catastrophes, completes the vision of this black scenario. Economic growth stops there, the world population rises to 8.4 billion in 2025, the world fragments itself, social and environmental conventions are no longer implemented, illiteracy spreads all over, and everyone decides to rely upon himself or herself selfishly in order to survive. This is a scenario which is far removed from peace, stability, and respect for human rights, and where the United Nations System becomes irrelevant.

Confronted with this dilemma, it is necessary to imagine and explore a third possible scenario, one sufficiently realistic to become the prime mover of things. One might call it a "scenario of shared and sustainable human development." Such a scenario leaves in place free trade and the market but seeks to offset their untoward effects and those of technology by respecting the social and environmental imperatives. It emphasises the non-material aspects of economic growth in order to handle natural resources properly. If such growth should remain a moderate one, it would at the same time be better distributed throughout the world, resulting in a less conspicuous growth in population, one corresponding to the United Nations' low projection: 7.3 billions by 2025. It could quite simply be called a scenario of sustainable development, keeping in mind that this term, officialised by the Rio de Janeiro Conference of the United Nations in 1992, means development that is at once economically viable, socially acceptable, environmentally sound, and technologically appropriate. But such development can be sustainable only if it is for all of humanity today and tomorrow, and this implies special care for solidarity and sharing – not only within each country but among all countries. Certainly one can act locally in support of sustainable development, but the concept has full meaning only at universal level.

In this scenario, born not of utopia but out of necessity, the freedom to act and get things rolling is tied to deliberate public action and adherence to regulations that ensure equality of opportunity, the flowering of different cultures, and a concern for the common good. Building up a multipolar system of regional free-trade zones means a fairer world equilibrium where cultural specificity is kept alive; this is complemented by mechanisms for the limitation of speculative financial flows and tax shelters, and by a global extension of rules and conventions governing social and environmental protection. The entire United Nations System complies with the principle of universality. Through weighting of voting rights all States can express their views, while those which are economically more powerful or have larger populations are given a role in accord-ance with their importance. Reducing economic tension among States makes it possible to organise a collective security founded on an equitable participation by all regional zones and on well-established principles, leading to a reduction of armament expenses and to devoting substantial aid to sustainable development (itself a warranty of peace if properly targeted and ensuring in particular the improvement of democratic national institutions).

Individually and collectively, promoting human rights invokes here a reminder of duties and responsibilities – both towards our fellow-beings and the environment, and for the generations to come. Be it understood that this scenario, aiming to establish a stable and equitable well-being of the human race, based on an international and intergenerational ethics of justice, sharing, frugality, tolerance and peace, would not be free of the major trends sketched out earlier. This scenario requires, in any case, profound change, as quickly as possible, of current economic, social and political practice. It implies a shift in paradigm of how things are done and priorities chosen on a planet whose limits are perceived and where the transition should be made from international cooperation to world governance.

As a result of the complexity of the situations occurring over the world, the diversity of levels of development and the cultural perceptions obtaining despite the globalising process, a change in scenario clearly will not occur in the same way from region to region, or in one country as in another, and a good number of stages will co-exist at any given moment. Thus the Americas might find themselves enjoying a slower rise in population and an abundance of natural resources, Asia might find itself in highly contrasting different situations, and Africa might still be relatively behind. But taking the world as a whole while carefully adapting its actions to regional conditions, Unesco can only strive towards a scenario of shared and sustainable human development, one corresponding implicitly to its permanent mission. This is a mission deriving also more or less clearly from a series of recent declarations and action plans of the United Nations System, including Agenda 21 adopted by the Rio Conference in 1992, the Istanbul plan of action on the habitat, and that of Copenhagen on social development.

In reality, all previous undertakings of Unesco fit into this type of scenario by virtue of its Constitution and the obligations of its mandate that are centred on humanity's intellectual and moral solidarity. If it is important for the world to "change scenarios" as quickly as possible, there is then no obligation on the part of the Organisation to bring about a drastic revolution in its aims and mission. Rather, faithful to its origins, it should proceed with an adaptation of its programmes and, above all, its working methods to promote more effectively bringing about the necessary changes. Once back in a new found universality, it will then be for Unesco to redefine more precise, better targeted principles of action, in order to make a concrete and specific contribution to the shared and sustainable human development scenario, exploiting its experience, its earlier programmes, its plausible means of action, and straightforward evaluation of its effectiveness. It will then be necessary for Unesco to decline a certain number of desirable projects so as to assume fully its specific role in the realms of education, science, culture and communication.

It is necessary, in this process, to delineate the permanent missions or responsibilities that will continue to comprise the legitimacy and justification of this specialised intergovernmental agency operating within a more coherent and better coordinated United Nations System. A clear formulation brought out vividly of these permanent missions – tasks that might be considered the major trends of its own programmes – would alone calm those who are critical of Unesco's relevance and utility. Only a few examples can be given here of these patient and long-term efforts, yet known by too few inasmuch as they do not result from the unexpected and the sensational, and are often overshadowed by journalistic or local actions without significant follow-up.

Thus, the world clearly expects from Unesco that it publish regularly reliable, constantly updated statistics and performance indicators in its four major areas of responsibility. The world expects Unesco to proceed with continuous monitoring and evaluation of innovation and to keep it advised periodically through global reports in these same areas. It recognises the necessity of normative action to harmonise national administrative and technical practice (whether, for example, on the equivalence of university diplomas, on the status of teachers or on the comparability of scientific methods). The world needs negotiated agreements indeed, including texts having juridical value, in order to organise international cooperation and avoid conflicts of a technical or economic nature.

The world knows of the growing role of NGOs and the need to lend moral (if not material) support to the most representative ones, while favouring free coordination of their actions. It counts on the existence and accessibility of an objective and competent world centre, capable of providing to governments the aid and advice that they seek for the development of their own national policies concerning education, science, culture and communication. The world appreciates the intermediary's role that a vigilant and qualified Unesco secretariat can play to facilitate the exchange of persons or information to the mutual benefit of all partners. The world also needs an instrument for the universal promotion of all cultures and heritages.

The world also needs an intellectual forum allowing an ethical debate open to all countries, where none of them could impose its views, on the causes and consequences of change or on safeguarding the human character of development. This is the place to underline that Unesco could not reduce itself simply to this role of forum, important as this might be as a tangible core of solidarity among peoples. One could fear, indeed, that a handful of major contributors thus await nothing more from the Organisation that it clear the way for contacts and exchanges while a host of small contributors – whose needs in education, science, culture and communication are considerable – would expect from Unesco much more than it would be capable of providing.

There is also the danger that the sole debate about the ideals of the Constitution does not readily give birth to programmes of concrete action. If such debate can advance the cause of awareness of the world’s major problems, Unesco has no monopoly on this and even runs the risk of seeing itself compromised in the game of governmental influence (as was sometimes the case at the time of the Cold War). Within the perspective of a sustainable-development scenario, however, one can hope to see a less intrinsic contradiction between intergovernmental debate and intellectual forum than has been witnessed thus far.

The few permanent responsibilities that have been recalled briefly above require precise formulation, of course, so as to give a clear and convincing image of Unesco, one that is not blurred by a multitude of circumstantial actions — whether more or less significant or more or less scattered. At this stage, by passing in review the meaningful changes that have already been identified, some priorities can be put forth. Here, only a few suggestions clearly pertinent to the Organisation's mandate and of long-term character will be proposed.

In the demographic domain, Unesco’s mandate is far from obvious. However, one knows today that it is the spread of new cultural and working patterns in the life of the couple, combined with economic development, that leads to reduced fertility. This suggests that more deliberate action in the general education of girls (a matter still lagging behind in many countries) would have a direct impact. It could conceivably be launched by a world conference followed by regional meetings and a plan of action in cooperation with the World Health Organisation and the UN Population Fund.

As for difficulties arising from the number and disparity of Member States, it should be possible to multiply so far hesitant actions affecting groups of States facing common problems: ecological zones, river basins, small islands, mountain regions, land-locked countries, shared histories and cultural frameworks, and the like.

As for the crucial matter of urbanisation – including that along coastal fringes, Unesco has acted only marginally until now within the framework of the Man and the Biosphere programme and the programme on the Management of Social Transformations (MOST). One could envisage, a programme allowing (in cooperation with the municipalities concerned) analysis and comparison in terms of physical systems of a certain number of megalopoles on the one hand, and of medium-sized cities on the other, so as to identify deadlocks and to improve their management as regards land use, housing, public and private transport, water and energy flows, food and materials supply, solid waste, and other quantifiable parameters.

As for rural exodus, it would be possible to contribute with suitable partners to the setting up of a limited number of interdisciplinary pilot projects to encourage people to stay where they are through decentralisation of activities, introducing the techniques and services required: information technology, schooling, local energy sources, local agriculture, microbanking, ecotourism, and the like.

Faced with the omnipresence of technologies now dominating the world and causing anxiety, it is important to integrate a minimum of scientific culture with what is called general culture. To this end, the teaching of science in school and through the media merits special effort, as well as the promotion of modern methods of popularisation (e.g. interactive scientific museums and parks).

For the safeguarding of biological diversity – which might be associated with the rural world as well as with water and renewable-energy activities, and equally linked with the protection of cultural identity – the worldwide network of biosphere reserves deserves more vigorous development. Here again, this should help encourage people to stay at home in conformity with one of this programme's basic goals.

When it comes to changing human behaviour regarding material consumption and pollution as implied by sustainable development, it would be opportune to mobilise educational institutions and the media around an effective world plan of action in environmental education. This would emphasise concretely the dead-ends to which consumerism leads, as well as the moral responsibility of all citizens both locally and globally. Generally speaking, Unesco’s programmes in the field of education should contribute to raising awareness of the planetary solidarity of the human race. At the same time it is essential to keep cultural diversity well alive. This requires maintaining linguistic plurality in cultural expression. It further calls for careful watching over intellectual and artistic high-quality productions so that they not be discarded by market forces or degraded by their authenticity. Unesco’s publications can play in particular, an important role in this respect.

It would seem opportune too, in regard to increased respect for the regulatory role of States together with the promotion of ethical action by Unesco, to devise a watchdog mechanism over effective application of conventions and recommendations formally adopted but often disregarded. The possible adoption, furthermore, of new normative instruments – more or less constraining ones – regarding problems resulting from certain advanced technologies should be constantly explored. In communication, for example, one could imagine that resolution of the current disorder in the generalised use of the Internet requires concerted efforts. What appears to be needed is cooperation based on a concrete agreement among those main bodies charged with the regulation of economic and ethical problems raised by this new device which upsets human relationships and might increase social inequality in developing countries. Similarly, in view of the serious questioning arising from emerging possibilities for human embryo manipulation and genic therapy, it can be anticipated that specific codes of conduct will have to be adopted as threats come in sight.

These are only a few suggestions, merely by way of illustration, whose applicability requires detailed examination. But tomorrow Unesco, using such an approach, would find itself being confided a visible role of stimulation and progression towards shared and sustainable human development. Such a role, innovative enough to mobilise all the actors concerned, is in reality nothing more than an extension of its permanent missions for which Unesco already has credibility. These include the protection and promotion of the cultural heritage; research on the oceans, the biosphere and natural resources; protection of copyright; respect for ethical principles in science and communication; and so on. Reinforced by a certain number of activities perhaps more circumstantial in character, this role is seemingly that which in the years to come should best embody Unesco's mandate, tangibly and realistically.

Such intentions should be based, however, on more down-to-earth principles which have been by-passed too often over time. In the first place one must always remember the nature of the Organisation, which is both specialised and intergovernmental and whose activities already relate in every country to several ministries. To be sure, the new world governance that goes beyond the traditional role of States will lead Unesco to keep even more open its external-relations system with the other actors involved. But it should guard against becoming an oasis for all callers and every conceivable group from the intellectual world, running the risk of offering up little but a host of incoherent events lacking noticeable follow-up. This is the pitfall that the Participation Programme with Member States must avoid at all cost.

Within the intellectual and moral sphere governing Unesco's mission, efficacy of action is more difficult to evaluate than in the more practical areas. Yet the quality and representativity of the former must be self-evident. Unesco should be able to serve as keystone in a variety of activities manifestly essential, especially multidisciplinary undertakings focused on major world objectives in its sphere of interest. To this end the Organisation should give priority to establishing networks that embody intellectual competence, well integrated and capable of promoting with continuity its operations throughout the world – instead of relying on bringing together small groups of experts selected more or less empirically.

Generally speaking, Unesco should always proceed to a careful examination of the "value added" by its activities. It should therefore take action only when it has a clear comparative advantage in relation to other governmental or non-governmental organisations, or other global or regional actors. It should avoid seeking coverage of too large a field with the excuse that a project proposal falls – whether directly or indirectly – within "its institutional fields of competence." One must accept the fact that powerful, regional political and economic bodies such as the European Union, now in existence or being created, have considerable resources including in these very fields. At any rate, it is clear that Unesco itself should be watchful so as not to be tempted to wander into the areas of responsibility of others except to establish mutually beneficial partnerships.

Today these imperatives are all the more important, especially since confusion (real or apparent) between a number of organisations has developed over some twenty years. This is because of the interconnection and complexity of problems with which each of these believes itself to be legitimately implicated, whether it concerns, for example, human rights or water supply. This situation turns up especially in the follow-through to major thematic conferences organised by the United Nations. There the majority of the System's specialised agencies could make specific contributions based on their professional competence, at least to the extent that they would not be left by the wayside during conference preparation or because of the forceful influence of the financing institutions. While the plans of action adopted by these conferences are more than often filled with pious wishes and incantations lacking the necessary means to implement them, they nevertheless represent political consensus whence every specialised agency may legitimately develop concrete activities.

It would be vain today to underestimate the importance of those actions making the Organisation better known that have strong appeal to the mass media. It is equally important that such actions convey a clear message about the problems dealt with, that they be relevant for a period of time, that their impact not be limited to the host country or a small in-group, and that they maintain a balance between cultures and regions. One should not, however, gauge the work of Unesco against what appears in the press. It is easier to catch the public’s attention to the safeguard of Nubia’s monuments than to literacy campaigns. Naturally, it is very desirable for the Headquarters of the Organisation to be the site of cultural events and meetings of a high level. However, Unesco belongs not to Paris, nor to France, nor to Europe, nor to anyone else, but to the world's community of nations. Beyond the principle of effectiveness and the relevance of its action, the Organisation must be responsive to the principle of universality.

It is true, too, that the Constitution, by making explicit reference to the major problems of peace, justice and solidarity, can induce Unesco to engage in broad debates of interest to the media to an extent that exceeds considerably the more technical aspects of what education, science, culture and communication can bring to the solution of such problems.

The Director-General, the elected personality who more than anyone embodies the ideals and the image of Unesco, is of course led to express as part of his political role what he deems it necessary to say concerning exceptional circumstances and major events standing out during his term of office. On the other hand, the governing bodies of the Organisation – the Executive Board and the General Conference – sometimes echoing the UN General Assembly, have the fullest latitude to open broad debates and adopt relevant resolutions. These declarations and resolutions should not, however, draw away Unesco from its institutional responsibilities. They are not intended to change significantly or to expand on-going approved programmes – which the secretariat is charged with putting faithfully into operation. They can contribute, conversely, to a better appreciation by the public of the ethical message of the Organisation.

One of the most fruitful ways of involving the media is to call attention to concrete successes in the field, in whatever country, where it can be shown without fear of contradiction to both decision-makers and the media that a problem germane to Unesco has been tackled efficiently. This sort of example – pertaining to what might be designated more or less vaguely as Unesco’s operational action – evidently supposes that it is always conducted in line with its purely functional activities. Such action, undertaken more often than not with extrabudgetary funds should be viewed as a direct extension of Unesco's principal missions and therefore should retain a character as experimental or as reproducible as possible, rather than being an end in itself. The Unesco of tomorrow will not be, any more than it was yesterday, a financing agency.

Unesco is to be neither a university nor a centre for study and research. It should act as an international public administration whose particular warrant is to handle international cooperation. It is thus through its knowledge of the mechanisms and levers that activate public authorities – knowledge that is not automatically familiar to all its staff (who for the most part were recruited on the basis of academic or circumstantial criteria without having administrative or governmental experience) – that Unesco may achieve national action or regulation on the most important changes it recommends. Its intergovernmental character confers necessary authority on Unesco.

Accountable for the financial contributions made by its Member States, even though the arrival on the scene of new actors may provide it with additional resources, the Organisation should not stray from the strategies and plans that its governing bodies have adopted. Otherwise, it could well disconcert its own sponsors.

The road that will lead the world to shared and sustainable human development is not an easy road. It calls for continued support from governments, civil society and public opinion in developing countries and even more so in the industrialised ones. In the change of scenario which is imperative for the world, the leaders from developing countries will have to demonstrate courage, clearness and integrity without fail. In the industrialised countries, always tempted to maintain their privileges, public opinion will have to be converted to of a new generosity and convinced of the need to counteract the perverse effects of globalisation.

It is by its moral prestige, by the brilliance and universal value of its action, by the quality of its communication methods, by the richness of the international dialogue that the Organisation has been able to stimulate, also with the support of the most eminent intellectual circles in education, science, culture and communication, that Unesco will influence public opinion and thereby receive the increased back-up from democratic governments that it will have deserved. Already launched upon the promotion of a "culture of peace," Unesco will be able to pursue in the future the permanent task assigned to it fifty years ago, namely, to contribute to the building of peace in the minds of men. It will then have secured its rightful and essential place in the world governance of tomorrow.

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